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North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina Tar Heels

ACCP4

2025-26 Drought Profile · 21 games played · 23-9 (72%)

North Carolina Tar Heels ranks 8th of 18 ACC teams in droughts per game (1.76 dpg, below the ACC average of 1.79). Their droughts average 3:41 — 0:06 below the ACC norm — and have allowed opponents an average of 7.4 pts per drought, contributing to 5 influenced losses (1 decisive/major) this season.

Drought Profile

Droughts/Game

1.76

Conf avg: 1.8 · #8 of 18 in ACC

8th in ACC

-0.03/game vs ACC avg

#8 in ACC (18 teams)

Avg Duration

3:41

Conf avg: 226.7 · #5 of 18 in ACC

-0:06 vs ACC avg

How long cold streaks typically last

Avg Pts Allowed

7.4

Conf avg: 7.0 · #13 of 18 in ACC

+0.4 pts vs ACC avg

Opponent points scored per drought

Game Impact

Influenced Losses

5

1 decisive/major — close losses where droughts swung the margin

Timeout Rate

22%

Coach called a timeout in 8 of 37 droughts

Record w/ 2+ Droughts

7-3

vs 16-6 in games with 0–1 droughts

Drought Trend This Season
Droughts per game over the season with a 3-game rolling average. Season average: 1.8 droughts/game.
When Droughts Happen
Shows when droughts begin in each 2-minute window throughout the game. Counts total to 37 droughts. Dashed line shows the conference average.
Half Breakdown
1st half vs 2nd half: does this team adjust at halftime or get worse?
1st Half
20
droughts · avg 3:35
2nd Half
17
droughts · avg 3:49
Drought Cost by Severity
How damaging are each tier of drought? Longer droughts allow more opponent points — see if critical ones truly hurt more.
Notable (3–4 min)
29
78% of droughts
6.6 pts allowed
Significant (4–5 min)
5
14% of droughts
9.6 pts allowed
Critical (5+ min)
3
8% of droughts
11 pts allowed

Avg. opponent points scored during drought

Notable (3–4 min)
6.6 pts
Significant (4–5 min)
9.6 pts
Critical (5+ min)
11 pts

Key Takeaway

Critical droughts allow 67% more points than notable ones (11 vs 6.6 pts). Longer droughts cost significantly more.

Drought-Ending Shots
What shot finally breaks the cold streak? Zone intensity = frequency.
3-PT(30%)2-PT(62%)FT(8%)
3-Ptr (11, 30%)2-Ptr (23, 62%)FT (3, 8%)
Score Differential by Game
Every game plotted over 40 minutes — positive = team leading, negative = trailing. Hover a game in the sidebar to highlight its path through the season.
Mar 19
VCU Ramsvs VCU Rams
L 78–82
Mar 12
Clemson Tigersvs Clemson Tigers
L 79–80
Mar 7
Duke Blue Devils@ Duke Blue Devils
L 61–76
Mar 3
Clemson Tigersvs Clemson Tigers
W 67–63
Feb 28
Virginia Tech Hokiesvs Virginia Tech Hokies
W 89–82
Feb 23
Louisville Cardinalsvs Louisville Cardinals
W 46–40
Feb 21
Syracuse Orange@ Syracuse Orange
W 77–64
Feb 17
NC State Wolfpack@ NC State Wolfpack
L 58–82
Feb 14
Pittsburgh Panthersvs Pittsburgh Panthers
W 79–65
Feb 10
Miami Hurricanes@ Miami Hurricanes
L 66–75
Feb 7
Duke Blue Devilsvs Duke Blue Devils
W 71–68
Feb 2
Syracuse Orangevs Syracuse Orange
W 87–77
Jan 31
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
W 91–75
Jan 24
Virginia Cavaliers@ Virginia Cavaliers
W 85–80
Jan 21
Notre Dame Fighting Irishvs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
W 91–69
Jan 17
California Golden Bears@ California Golden Bears
L 78–84
Jan 14
Stanford Cardinal@ Stanford Cardinal
L 90–95
Jan 10
Wake Forest Demon Deaconsvs Wake Forest Demon Deacons
W 87–84
Jan 3
SMU Mustangs@ SMU Mustangs
L 83–97
Dec 30
Florida State Seminolesvs Florida State Seminoles
W 79–66
Dec 22
East Carolina Piratesvs East Carolina Pirates
W 99–51
Dec 20
Ohio State Buckeyes@ Ohio State Buckeyes
W 71–70
Dec 16
East Tennessee State Buccaneersvs East Tennessee State Buccaneers
W 77–58
Dec 13
South Carolina Upstate Spartansvs South Carolina Upstate Spartans
W 80–62
Dec 7
Georgetown Hoyasvs Georgetown Hoyas
W 81–61
Dec 2
Kentucky Wildcats@ Kentucky Wildcats
W 67–64
Nov 27
Michigan State Spartansvs Michigan State Spartans
L 58–74
Nov 25
St. Bonaventure Bonniesvs St. Bonaventure Bonnies
W 85–70
Nov 18
Navy Midshipmenvs Navy Midshipmen
W 73–61
Nov 14
North Carolina Central Eaglesvs North Carolina Central Eagles
W 97–53
Nov 11
Radford Highlandersvs Radford Highlanders
W 89–74
Nov 7
Kansas Jayhawksvs Kansas Jayhawks
W 87–74
← Opponent leading← Game time →Team leading →
Game Log
Notable (3-4 min)Significant (4-5 min)Critical (5+ min)
DateOpponentScore (H-A)Droughts
Mar 19VCU Ramsvs VCU RamsL 78-82
1
Mar 12Clemson Tigersvs Clemson TigersL 79-80
1
Mar 7Duke Blue Devils@ Duke Blue DevilsL 76-61
3
Mar 3Clemson Tigersvs Clemson TigersW 67-63
2
Feb 28Virginia Tech Hokiesvs Virginia Tech HokiesW 89-820
Feb 23Louisville Cardinalsvs Louisville CardinalsW 46-40
1
Feb 21Syracuse Orange@ Syracuse OrangeW 64-770
Feb 17NC State Wolfpack@ NC State WolfpackL 82-580
Feb 14Pittsburgh Panthersvs Pittsburgh PanthersW 79-65
1
Feb 10Miami Hurricanes@ Miami HurricanesL 75-660
Feb 7Duke Blue Devilsvs Duke Blue DevilsW 71-68
3
Feb 2Syracuse Orangevs Syracuse OrangeW 87-770
Jan 31Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets@ Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsW 75-91
1
Jan 24Virginia Cavaliers@ Virginia CavaliersW 80-85
2
Jan 21Notre Dame Fighting Irishvs Notre Dame Fighting IrishW 91-690
Jan 17California Golden Bears@ California Golden BearsL 84-78
2
Jan 14Stanford Cardinal@ Stanford CardinalL 95-900
Jan 10Wake Forest Demon Deaconsvs Wake Forest Demon DeaconsW 87-84
1
Jan 3SMU Mustangs@ SMU MustangsL 97-83
1
Dec 30Florida State Seminolesvs Florida State SeminolesW 79-66
3
Dec 22East Carolina Piratesvs East Carolina PiratesW 99-510
Dec 20Ohio State Buckeyes@ Ohio State BuckeyesW 70-71
1
Dec 16East Tennessee State Buccaneersvs East Tennessee State BuccaneersW 77-580
Dec 13South Carolina Upstate Spartansvs South Carolina Upstate SpartansW 80-62
1
Dec 7Georgetown Hoyasvs Georgetown HoyasW 81-61
3
Dec 2Kentucky Wildcats@ Kentucky WildcatsW 64-67
1
Nov 27Michigan State Spartansvs Michigan State SpartansL 58-74
3
Nov 25St. Bonaventure Bonniesvs St. Bonaventure BonniesW 85-700
Nov 18Navy Midshipmenvs Navy MidshipmenW 73-61
2
Nov 14North Carolina Central Eaglesvs North Carolina Central EaglesW 97-530
Nov 11Radford Highlandersvs Radford HighlandersW 89-74
1
Nov 7Kansas Jayhawksvs Kansas JayhawksW 87-74
3
Drought-Influenced Losses
Close losses (≤15 pts) where droughts significantly impacted the outcome. "Defensive cost" = points allowed during drought periods.
Duke Blue Devils@ Duke Blue DevilsL 61-76Mar 7
33 pts allowed during 3 droughts (43.4% of 15-pt margin)
Decisive Factor
California Golden Bears@ California Golden BearsL 78-84Jan 17
15 pts allowed during 2 droughts (17.9% of 6-pt margin)
Significant Factor
VCU Ramsvs VCU RamsL 78-82Mar 19
12 pts allowed during 1 drought (14.6% of 4-pt margin)
Significant Factor
SMU Mustangs@ SMU MustangsL 83-97Jan 3
11 pts allowed during 1 drought (11.3% of 14-pt margin)
Minor Factor
Clemson Tigersvs Clemson TigersL 79-80Mar 12
9 pts allowed during 1 drought (11.3% of 1-pt margin)
Minor Factor
Drought Killers
Players who most often ended North Carolina Tar Heels scoring droughts this season.
1
HV
Henri Veesaar
22% clutchⓘ
9
2
CW
Caleb Wilson
25% clutchⓘ
8
3
JS
Jarin Stevenson
40% clutchⓘ
5
4
LB
Luka Bogavac
67% clutchⓘ
3
5
JP
Jonathan Powell
100% clutchⓘ
3
6
ST
Seth Trimble
0% clutchⓘ
3
7
DD
Derek Dixon
33% clutchⓘ
3
8
JY
Jaydon Young
2
3PT
2PT
FT