Drought Watchby Nektar Insights
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All findings
CompareConferencesBlackoutsDanger Map

All findings

What the data says

2025-26, D1 teams. Findings recompute from the season’s games; pages without a single headline finding say what they cover. Open one for the data behind it.

Explore

  • ComparePut two teams’ drought profiles side by side.
  • ConferencesThe SEC goes cold least: 0.97 droughts per team-game. No other conference is under 1.2.
  • BlackoutsStretches when both teams are in a drought at once.
  • Danger MapTeams spend the most time in droughts in the 1st half

Causes

  • CorrelationsThe team with fewer droughts wins 73.7% of the time
  • EfficiencyDrought rate against offensive efficiency.
  • Halves & timeoutsTeams start 38% fewer droughts in the 2nd half; timeouts show no measurable effect
  • Timeout MythCalling a timeout shows no measurable effect on ending a drought (1,014 timeouts studied)

Impact

  • Drought costA drought costs 7.3 points on average
  • Influenced GamesClose losses where droughts decided the game.
  • CollapsesDroughts that gave up a lead, broke a tie or deepened a deficit.
  • Damage VelocityDamage velocity is flat: opponents score 1.86-1.91 points per minute at every drought length

Players & D

  • Drought KillersWho ends droughts, and when.
  • Forcing DefensesDuke Blue Devils forced the most droughts: 2.34 per game against D1 teams

Drought Watch by Nektar Insights. Play-by-play data via ESPN's public API.

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