Correlations
The team with fewer droughts wins 73.7% of the time
In the 4,157 D1 vs D1 games where the two teams' drought counts differed. With 2 or more fewer droughts: 84.3%.
How often beats how long
Fewer droughts picks the winner 73.7% of the time. A shorter longest drought picks it 68.1%.
Below, each team's season: drought metrics against win percentage.
Do droughts predict losses?
Short answer: yes, but not always. A team's droughts-per-game and win percentage have a real negative correlation across the 2025-26 D1 men's season, meaningful but not tight. Plenty of teams with high drought rates still win plenty of games. The second chart adds the cost of the drought: average points allowed during scoreless stretches.
Each point on a scatter is one team's 2025-26 season. The first chart plots droughts-per-game against win percentage; the second plots points-allowed-per-drought against win percentage. Filter by tier (Power 4 / mid-major / low-major) or to AP-ranked teams only. The regression line recomputes on every filter change.
What to look for. The line under the headline numbers says which measure, frequency or cost, tracks winning more closely in 2025-26; it recomputes with the data. The outliers are worth a look in both directions: high-drought teams that still win, and low-drought teams that still lose, which can point to a defensive problem the drought lens cannot see.
Related: coaching · conferences · drought cost