Drought cost Influenced Games Collapses Damage Velocity

Drought-influenced games

Close losses (≤15 points) where scoring droughts significantly impacted the outcome. These games highlight situations where extended scoreless periods were a major factor in the final result.

2779

Total games

2025-26 season

156

Decisive

≥40% of opp score

746

Major

25–39% of opp score

1510

Significant

12–24% of opp score

16.4

Avg drought cost

During drought periods

Impact severity categories

How we categorize the influence of droughts on close losses

Decisive factor (≥40%)

40%+ of the opponent's total points came during your scoring droughts. Nearly half their scoring happened while your team was completely shut down.

Major factor (25–39%)

25–39% of the opponent's total points came during your scoring droughts. A quarter or more of their offense came at your most vulnerable moments.

Significant factor (12–24%)

12–24% of the opponent's total points came during your scoring droughts. Meaningful contribution to the loss, even if not the primary cause.

Minor factor (<12%)

Less than 12% of the opponent's total points came during your scoring droughts. Present but not a dominant factor in the outcome.

Teams with most influenced losses

Top 10 teams with the most close losses where droughts were a significant factor

Tier

Click a team to filter the games table below

Maine Black Bears

16 losses(9 decisive/major)

SE Louisiana Lions

14 losses(8 decisive/major)

Northwestern State Demons

14 losses(8 decisive/major)

Northwestern Wildcats

14 losses(2 decisive/major)

Stonehill Skyhawks

13 losses(5 decisive/major)

Loyola Chicago Ramblers

13 losses(7 decisive/major)

Jacksonville State Gamecocks

13 losses(3 decisive/major)

Army Black Knights

13 losses(6 decisive/major)

Northeastern Huskies

13 losses(3 decisive/major)

Long Beach State Beach

13 losses(2 decisive/major)

All influenced games

Filter by tier, conference, and severity to explore specific matchups

Tier

Showing 20 of 2779 games

Team ↕	Opponent ↕	Date ↕	Score	Margin ↕	Drought cost (pts) ↕	Droughts ↕	Severity ↕
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks	vs Montana State Bobcats	Mar 2	L 65-76	11	42	4	Decisive Factor
North Dakota Fighting Hawks	@ North Dakota State Bison	Mar 8	L 62-70	8	39	6	Decisive Factor
Gonzaga Bulldogs	@ Saint Mary's Gaels	Feb 28	L 59-70	11	39	4	Decisive Factor⏱ Late
Stonehill Skyhawks	vs Wagner Seahawks	Feb 14	L 57-68	11	39	6	Decisive Factor
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles	vs West Georgia Wolves	Nov 17	L 59-61	2	39	5	Decisive Factor
Maine Black Bears	@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights	Nov 10	L 60-72	12	38	4	Decisive Factor
George Washington Revolutionaries	@ Florida Gators	Dec 13	L 70-80	10	38	5	Decisive Factor
Iowa State Cyclones	@ Cincinnati Bearcats	Jan 17	L 70-79	9	37	4	Decisive Factor⏱ Late
UNC Asheville Bulldogs	@ NC State Wolfpack	Dec 6	L 63-75	12	37	4	Decisive Factor
Seattle U Redhawks	@ Pacific Tigers	Mar 7	L 58-61	3	37	5	Decisive Factor
Charleston Southern Buccaneers	vs Lindenwood Lions	Nov 14	L 77-83	6	37	4	Decisive Factor⏱ Late
Buffalo Bulls	@ South Alabama Jaguars	Feb 7	L 69-81	12	37	4	Decisive Factor
Northern Kentucky Norse	@ Detroit Mercy Titans	Jan 30	L 77-90	13	37	2	Decisive Factor
Indiana State Sycamores	@ Southern Illinois Salukis	Feb 25	L 55-66	11	37	4	Decisive Factor
Nevada Wolf Pack	@ San Diego State Aztecs	Feb 14	L 57-71	14	37	4	Decisive Factor
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers	vs Quinnipiac Bobcats	Jan 22	L 62-77	15	37	3	Decisive Factor⏱ Late
Merrimack Warriors	vs Siena Saints	Mar 10	L 54-64	10	36	4	Decisive Factor
Illinois State Redbirds	vs UIC Flames	Jan 10	L 59-63	4	36	5	Decisive Factor⏱ Late
Idaho Vandals	vs Northern Colorado Bears	Feb 28	L 67-76	9	36	3	Decisive Factor
Southern Miss Golden Eagles	@ Georgia State Panthers	Jan 22	L 62-69	7	36	5	Decisive Factor

Note: This analysis identifies games where droughts were a significant factor, not a singular cause. Basketball games have many contributing factors. The "Drought cost" column shows the points the opponent scored during the losing team's droughts, which provides context for how droughts influenced the outcome.

Games the drought decided

This page connects drought analytics back to wins and losses. A drought-influenced game is any game where the unanswered points one team gave up during their droughts equaled or exceeded the final margin. In plain terms: take away the drought, and the result could plausibly have flipped.

The table is filterable by team, conference, and tier. The drought margin column is the opponent points scored during the losing team's droughts; the final margin column is the final score gap. When the drought margin meets or beats the final margin, the row is flagged. Click any game to see the full possession-by-possession overlay chart with droughts highlighted.

Two patterns are worth pulling out. Drought-influenced games skew toward the back half of the season, droughts in early non-conference games tend to come at low-leverage moments, while conference road games concentrate them in the final eight minutes. And the killer drought is almost always 4+ minutes, not 3, the 3-minute droughts hurt but rarely decide, while the 4-to-5-minute stretches change scores by 7-12 points and the math stops working.