Damage velocity
Damage velocity is flat: opponents score 1.86-1.91 points per minute at every drought length
Opponent points per drought-minute, D1 teams, 2025-26. Longer droughts cost more because they last longer (r = 0.49 between length and opponent points), not because the rate rises.
3:00-3:59: 1.88 pts/min (n=11,010) · 4:00-4:59: 1.86 pts/min (n=3,544) · 5:00-5:59: 1.87 pts/min (n=1,197) · 6:00-7:59: 1.91 pts/min (n=560) · 8:00+: 1.89 pts/min (n=74)
Not every scoring drought costs the same. Damage velocity measures opponent points allowed per minute of drought, how fast a cold stretch actually bleeds points. A long-but-harmless freeze and a short avalanche can have the same duration and completely different consequences.
Drought length vs opponent damage
Each dot is a D1 team's 2025-26 season. X-axis is average drought length in minutes; Y-axis is average opponent points scored per drought. The dashed lines mark the league average on each axis, splitting the field into four quadrants. This is descriptive, not a correlation claim, there's no regression line.
Highest damage velocity
The sharpest individual droughts of the season by points allowed per minute. Filtered to droughts of at least 2 minutes so a single fast possession doesn't skew the list.
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| # | Team | Opponent | Damage velocity | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chicago State Cougars |  Saint Louis Billikens | 5.5 | Nov 6 |
| 2 |  Alcorn State Braves |  Iowa State Cyclones | 5.4 | Dec 3 |
| 3 | Alcorn State Braves |  Baylor Bears | 5.0 | Dec 19 |
| 4 |  Missouri State Bears |  Liberty Flames | 4.9 | Feb 7 |
| 5 |  Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners |  Cal Poly Mustangs | 4.8 | Mar 7 |
| 6 |  Weber State Wildcats |  Utah Tech Trailblazers | 4.8 | Dec 20 |
| 7 |  Kansas State Wildcats |  Nebraska Cornhuskers | 4.8 | Nov 21 |
| 8 |  Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles |  Georgia Bulldogs | 4.7 | Nov 29 |
| 9 |  Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils |  Murray State Racers | 4.7 | Nov 7 |
| 10 |  Georgia Southern Eagles |  Georgia State Panthers | 4.7 | Dec 18 |
| 11 |  Auburn Tigers |  Texas A&M Aggies | 4.7 | Jan 6 |
| 12 |  UMass Lowell River Hawks |  Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 4.7 | Nov 16 |
| 13 | Georgia Southern Eagles |  Florida State Seminoles | 4.6 | Nov 21 |
| 14 |  Arkansas Razorbacks |  Houston Cougars | 4.6 | Dec 20 |
| 15 |  Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers |  Quinnipiac Bobcats | 4.6 | Jan 22 |
| 16 |  Princeton Tigers |  Cornell Big Red | 4.6 | Jan 30 |
| 17 |  South Florida Bulls |  Colorado State Rams | 4.6 | Nov 28 |
| 18 |  Villanova Wildcats |  Michigan Wolverines | 4.5 | Dec 9 |
| 19 | Saint Louis Billikens | Georgia Bulldogs | 4.5 | Mar 19 |
| 20 |  UNC Greensboro Spartans |  NC State Wolfpack | 4.5 | Nov 12 |
| 21 |  Prairie View A&M Panthers |  Wichita State Shockers | 4.5 | Nov 8 |
| 22 |  Lafayette Leopards |  Lehigh Mountain Hawks | 4.5 | Jan 24 |
| 23 |  East Texas A&M Lions |  Lamar Cardinals | 4.5 | Jan 27 |
| 24 |  IU Indianapolis Jaguars |  Youngstown State Penguins | 4.5 | Jan 30 |
| 25 |  Gonzaga Bulldogs |  Seattle U Redhawks | 4.4 | Jan 2 |
What is damage velocity?
Damage velocity is opponent points allowed per minute of a scoring drought, how fast a cold stretch gives up points, not just how long it lasts. A five-minute drought that surrenders 4 points is a rounding error; a ninety-second drought that surrenders 8 is an avalanche. Raw duration alone can't tell those two apart.
The quadrant above plots every D1 team's average drought length against its average points allowed per drought. Contained freeze teams go cold for a while but the opponent can't capitalize. Slow burn teams have long droughts that also cost real points. Quick recover teams snap out of it fast before much damage is done. Avalanche teams have short droughts that turn expensive in a hurry, the most dangerous profile, because there's no long stretch of warning to call a timeout before the damage grows.
Below the quadrant, the highest single-drought damage velocities of the season, the sharpest single droughts by points-allowed-per-minute, filtered to droughts of at least two minutes so a one-possession fluke doesn't distort the list.
Related: drought cost · correlations · influenced games