NCAA men's basketball, 2025-26 season. Updated after every game.
Which teams go cold, and what it costs them
Every game has momentum swings. A scoring drought is a stretch of 3+ minutes without a made basket. We track every one across all D1 games this season to answer: which teams go cold, when do they go cold, and what happens when they do?
What the data says (2025-26, D1 vs D1 games)
73.7%
The team with fewer droughts wins
Across 4,157 games where the two teams' drought counts differed. With 2 or more fewer: 84.3% (1,793 games).
See the data73.7% vs 68.1%
How often beats how long
Fewer droughts picks the winner 73.7% of the time. A shorter longest drought picks it 68.1%.
See the data1st half, 12:00
The minute teams are most often stuck in a drought
19.6% of team-time in that minute is spent in a drought, more than any other minute.
See the map6,114
Games tracked
2025-26 season
16,385
Droughts detected
1.4 per team per game
13:10
Longest drought
Delaware Blue Hens
3:53
Avg drought
Across all D1 teams
America East
Most drought-prone
1.77 droughts per team per game
Season trend
Droughts per game, normalized for varying schedule intensity. The rolling average reveals if the season is trending colder or hotter.
How droughts end
What type of shot finally breaks the scoring drought?
Do droughts cost you wins?
Opponents score 7.3 points per drought on average. In D1 vs D1 games where the two teams' drought counts differ, the team with fewer droughts wins 73.7%.
Teams spend the most time in droughts in the 1st half
Share of team-time spent in a recorded drought, by game window, D1 teams. Every 1st-half window runs higher than every 2nd-half window. The opening and closing 3:00 are left out: a scoreless start from the tip and a drought still going at the horn are never recorded.
Drought = 3:00+ without a made basket. Halftime does not end one. Full Danger Map
Longest droughts, 2025-26
The most extreme scoring droughts, the moments where games can swing 10+ points.
Delaware Blue Hens vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs · 3/7/2026
13:10
28 pts allowed
Houston Cougars vs Jackson State Tigers · 12/10/2025
11:39
19 pts allowed
UConn Huskies vs St. John's Red Storm · 2/25/2026
10:47
16 pts allowed
Iona Gaels vs Niagara Purple Eagles · 1/9/2026
10:26
22 pts allowed
UNC Greensboro Spartans vs The Citadel Bulldogs · 1/15/2026
9:53
20 pts allowed
Monmouth Hawks vs Drexel Dragons · 1/15/2026
9:46
19 pts allowed
Wichita State Shockers vs Eastern Kentucky Colonels · 12/21/2025
9:40
20 pts allowed
Texas A&M Aggies vs Florida Gators · 2/7/2026
9:38
12 pts allowed
Holy Cross Crusaders vs Regis Pride · 12/9/2025
9:27
13 pts allowed
Bryant Bulldogs vs NJIT Highlanders · 2/28/2026
9:20
22 pts allowed
Why 3 minutes?
Show rationale ↓
The shot clock is 30 seconds. Teams average ~70 possessions per game, meaning a possession every ~34 seconds. A 3-minute scoreless stretch represents roughly 5-6 consecutive missed possessions, which is 3.5x the median gap between made baskets.
We tested thresholds from 2 to 5 minutes. At 2 minutes, nearly every game has 8-10 “droughts”, too noisy to be meaningful. At 5 minutes, only the most extreme cold stretches qualify and you miss the mid-game momentum shifts that coaches react to.
3 minutes is the sweet spot: common enough to analyze trends across a full season (about 1.4 per team per game), but rare enough that each one represents a genuine scoring failure, not just normal basketball variance.