Drought Killers Forcing Defenses Defense vs Droughts

Better defenses force more droughts, across 236 D1 teams

This crosses D1 defenses’ 2025-26 droughts forced per game with their adjusted defense (Barttorvik, KenPom-style), then ranks the defenses that force more, or fewer, droughts than their rating predicts.

−0.51

correlation of adj. D with droughts forced (lower adj. D is the better defense)

236

teams matched, of 365 D1 (ratings crosswalk)

South Alabama

+0.87 droughts forced per game over its rating

Tier

236 teams shown

Droughts forced vs adjusted defense

Each dot is a defense’s 2025-26 season against D1 opponents. X = adjusted defense (points allowed per 100 possessions, lower is better); Y = droughts forced per game. The solid line is the league trend.

Force more droughts than their rating predicts

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Team	Adj. D	Forced/Gm	Exp.	Δ
South Alabama Jaguars	109.3	2.31	1.44	+0.87
Marist Red Foxes	102.4	2.31	1.60	+0.71
Siena Saints	108.9	2.06	1.45	+0.61
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles	117.2	1.85	1.25	+0.60
Howard Bison	106.2	2.10	1.51	+0.59
Furman Paladins	109.0	2.03	1.45	+0.59
Pacific Tigers	104.1	2.13	1.56	+0.57
Navy Midshipmen	105.4	2.06	1.53	+0.53
Lamar Cardinals	110.1	1.93	1.42	+0.51
Northern Iowa Panthers	98.6	2.20	1.69	+0.51

Force fewer droughts than their rating predicts

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Team	Adj. D	Forced/Gm	Exp.	Δ
Colorado Buffaloes	106.8	0.75	1.50	−0.75
Alabama Crimson Tide	102.8	1.00	1.59	−0.59
Marquette Golden Eagles	101.2	1.10	1.63	−0.53
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles	114.0	0.80	1.33	−0.53
Southern Utah Thunderbirds	114.5	0.83	1.32	−0.49
Texas Tech Red Raiders	98.8	1.21	1.69	−0.48
USC Trojans	101.3	1.17	1.63	−0.46
Montana Grizzlies	107.0	1.03	1.49	−0.46
South Carolina Gamecocks	104.6	1.09	1.55	−0.46
Arkansas Razorbacks	101.7	1.17	1.62	−0.45

Reading the chart

Each dot is one defense. Droughts forced counts only droughts by D1 opponents, divided by games against D1 opponents, the same number the forcing defenses page ranks. Adjusted defense is Barttorvik’s (KenPom-style) points allowed per 100 possessions, so lower is better.

The useful signal is the residual: how far a defense sits above or below the line its rating predicts. Above the line, a defense forces more droughts than its rating implies. Below the line, it forces fewer droughts than its rating implies.

Coverage: this view covers 236 of 365 D1 teams with at least 10 games against D1 opponents, the ones whose name resolves to a ratings row. The unmatched tail is excluded, not folded in. One season only. In 2025-26 the largest residuals belong to low-majors; the Power 4 filter isolates the high-major outliers.