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Saturday, January 17, 2026

Conference game

Drought outlookSeason rates vs final result

California Golden Bears

High confidence

2

est. droughts

3:50

avg duration

8

pts/drought

est. 13 pts ceded/game

Final results

✓ Better than expected

Droughts

~2→1

-1

Pts ceded

~13→7

-6

North Carolina Tar Heels

Moderate confidence

1

est. droughts

3:41

avg duration

7

pts/drought

est. 8 pts ceded/game

Final results

✗ Unexpected drought

Droughts

~1→2

+1

Pts ceded

~8→15

+7

California Golden Bears averages 1 droughts/game  · North Carolina Tar Heels forces 2 opp. droughts/game

3

Total droughts

Both teams combined

1

California Golden Bears droughts

2

North Carolina Tar Heels droughts

4:18

Longest drought

North Carolina Tar Heels

22

Drought point swing

Total drought cost (pts)

California Golden Bears drought cost

1 drought • 7 pts drought cost

7

Drought cost (pts)

Actual point differential change

North Carolina Tar Heels drought cost

2 droughts • 15 pts drought cost

15

Drought cost (pts)

Actual point differential change

Game timeline

All droughts

Notable (3-4 min)Significant (4-5 min)Critical (5+ min)
California Golden Bears

California Golden Bears

1
2nd Halfnotable

Score: 63 → 66 · Opponent scored 7 pts

Ended by: Mantas Kocanas makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dai Dai Ames assists)

3-Pointer

3:07

7.0 pts

North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina Tar Heels

2
1st HalfsignificantTO called

Score: 13 → 15 · Opponent scored 11 pts

Ended by: Caleb Wilson makes layup (Luka Bogavac assists)

2-Pointer

4:18

11.0 pts

2nd Halfsignificant

Score: 52 → 55 · Opponent scored 4 pts

Ended by: Derek Dixon makes 24-foot three point jumper (Caleb Wilson assists)

3-Pointer

4:16

4.0 pts