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Cal Poly Mustangs

Cal Poly Mustangs

Big WestOTHER

2025-26 Drought Profile · 22 games played · 14-18 (44%)

Cal Poly Mustangs ranks 4th of 11 Big West teams in droughts per game (1.64 dpg, below the Big West average of 1.75). Their droughts average 4:15 — +0:25 above the Big West norm — and have allowed opponents an average of 8.4 pts per drought, contributing to 8 influenced losses (2 decisive/major) this season.

Drought Profile

Droughts/Game

1.64

Conf avg: 1.7 · #4 of 11 in Big West

4th in Big West

-0.11/game vs Big West avg

#4 in Big West (11 teams)

Avg Duration

4:15

Conf avg: 232.0 · #11 of 11 in Big West

+0:25 vs Big West avg

How long cold streaks typically last

Avg Pts Allowed

8.4

Conf avg: 7.3 · #11 of 11 in Big West

+1.2 pts vs Big West avg

Opponent points scored per drought

Game Impact

Influenced Losses

8

2 decisive/major — close losses where droughts swung the margin

Timeout Rate

28%

Coach called a timeout in 10 of 36 droughts

Record w/ 2+ Droughts

3-9

vs 11-9 in games with 0–1 droughts

Drought Trend This Season
Droughts per game over the season with a 3-game rolling average. Season average: 1.6 droughts/game.
When Droughts Happen
Shows when droughts begin in each 2-minute window throughout the game. Counts total to 36 droughts. Dashed line shows the conference average.
Half Breakdown
1st half vs 2nd half: does this team adjust at halftime or get worse?
1st Half
23
droughts · avg 4:31
2nd Half
13
droughts · avg 3:46
Drought Cost by Severity
How damaging are each tier of drought? Longer droughts allow more opponent points — see if critical ones truly hurt more.
Notable (3–4 min)
19
53% of droughts
7.4 pts allowed
Significant (4–5 min)
12
33% of droughts
8.9 pts allowed
Critical (5+ min)
5
14% of droughts
11.4 pts allowed

Avg. opponent points scored during drought

Notable (3–4 min)
7.4 pts
Significant (4–5 min)
8.9 pts
Critical (5+ min)
11.4 pts

Key Takeaway

Critical droughts allow 54% more points than notable ones (11.4 vs 7.4 pts). Longer droughts cost significantly more.

Drought-Ending Shots
What shot finally breaks the cold streak? Zone intensity = frequency.
3-PT(32%)2-PT(44%)FT(24%)
3-Ptr (11, 32%)2-Ptr (15, 44%)FT (8, 24%)
Score Differential by Game
Every game plotted over 40 minutes — positive = team leading, negative = trailing. Hover a game in the sidebar to highlight its path through the season.
Mar 11
UC San Diego Tritons@ UC San Diego Tritons
L 69–72
Mar 7
Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunnersvs Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners
W 108–76
Mar 5
UC Irvine Anteaters@ UC Irvine Anteaters
L 85–107
Feb 28
UC San Diego Tritons@ UC San Diego Tritons
L 64–80
Feb 26
Long Beach State Beachvs Long Beach State Beach
W 102–92
Feb 19
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors@ Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
W 86–75
Feb 14
UC Santa Barbara Gauchosvs UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
W 89–79
Feb 12
UC Irvine Anteatersvs UC Irvine Anteaters
W 79–73
Feb 7
UC Davis Aggies@ UC Davis Aggies
L 58–67
Feb 5
Cal State Northridge Matadorsvs Cal State Northridge Matadors
L 96–97
Jan 31
UC Riverside Highlanders@ UC Riverside Highlanders
W 94–87
Jan 29
Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners@ Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners
W 104–79
Jan 24
Cal State Fullerton Titansvs Cal State Fullerton Titans
L 78–93
Jan 22
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos@ UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
L 67–107
Jan 15
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriorsvs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
L 66–86
Jan 10
UC Davis Aggiesvs UC Davis Aggies
W 84–78
Jan 8
Cal State Northridge Matadors@ Cal State Northridge Matadors
L 90–95
Jan 3
Long Beach State Beach@ Long Beach State Beach
L 66–74
Jan 1
UC San Diego Tritonsvs UC San Diego Tritons
W 67–65
Dec 21
Idaho Vandalsvs Idaho Vandals
L 80–83
Dec 19
UCLA Bruins@ UCLA Bruins
L 87–108
Dec 16
Montana State Bobcatsvs Montana State Bobcats
L 80–83
Dec 6
UC Riverside Highlandersvs UC Riverside Highlanders
L 84–88
Dec 4
Cal State Fullerton Titans@ Cal State Fullerton Titans
W 94–91
Nov 29
vs Redlands Bulldogs
W 87–81
Nov 25
Southeast Missouri State Redhawksvs Southeast Missouri State Redhawks
L 68–84
Nov 24
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks@ Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
L 87–93
Nov 20
Utah Utes@ Utah Utes
W 92–85
Nov 14
Montana Grizzlies@ Montana Grizzlies
L 82–90
Nov 12
Colorado State Rams@ Colorado State Rams
L 79–93
Nov 8
Seattle U Redhawks@ Seattle U Redhawks
W 73–71
Nov 5
vs Pacific Lutheran Lutes
W 101–79
← Opponent leading← Game time →Team leading →
Game Log
Notable (3-4 min)Significant (4-5 min)Critical (5+ min)
DateOpponentScore (H-A)Droughts
Mar 11UC San Diego Tritons@ UC San Diego TritonsL 72-69
2
Mar 7Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunnersvs Cal State Bakersfield RoadrunnersW 108-760
Mar 5UC Irvine Anteaters@ UC Irvine AnteatersL 107-850
Feb 28UC San Diego Tritons@ UC San Diego TritonsL 80-64
2
Feb 26Long Beach State Beachvs Long Beach State BeachW 102-920
Feb 19Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors@ Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsW 75-86
1
Feb 14UC Santa Barbara Gauchosvs UC Santa Barbara GauchosW 89-79
1
Feb 12UC Irvine Anteatersvs UC Irvine AnteatersW 79-73
2
Feb 7UC Davis Aggies@ UC Davis AggiesL 67-58
3
Feb 5Cal State Northridge Matadorsvs Cal State Northridge MatadorsL 96-970
Jan 31UC Riverside Highlanders@ UC Riverside HighlandersW 87-940
Jan 29Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners@ Cal State Bakersfield RoadrunnersW 79-1040
Jan 24Cal State Fullerton Titansvs Cal State Fullerton TitansL 78-930
Jan 22UC Santa Barbara Gauchos@ UC Santa Barbara GauchosL 107-67
2
Jan 15Hawai'i Rainbow Warriorsvs Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsL 66-86
1
Jan 10UC Davis Aggiesvs UC Davis AggiesW 84-780
Jan 8Cal State Northridge Matadors@ Cal State Northridge MatadorsL 95-900
Jan 3Long Beach State Beach@ Long Beach State BeachL 74-66
1
Jan 1UC San Diego Tritonsvs UC San Diego TritonsW 67-65
2
Dec 21Idaho Vandalsvs Idaho VandalsL 80-83
2
Dec 19UCLA Bruins@ UCLA BruinsL 108-87
2
Dec 16Montana State Bobcatsvs Montana State BobcatsL 80-83
2
Dec 6UC Riverside Highlandersvs UC Riverside HighlandersL 84-88
1
Dec 4Cal State Fullerton Titans@ Cal State Fullerton TitansW 91-94
1
Nov 29vs Redlands BulldogsW 87-81
1
Nov 25Southeast Missouri State Redhawksvs Southeast Missouri State RedhawksL 68-84
2
Nov 24Northern Arizona Lumberjacks@ Northern Arizona LumberjacksL 93-870
Nov 20Utah Utes@ Utah UtesW 85-92
1
Nov 14Montana Grizzlies@ Montana GrizzliesL 90-82
1
Nov 12Colorado State Rams@ Colorado State RamsL 93-79
3
Nov 8Seattle U Redhawks@ Seattle U RedhawksW 71-73
2
Nov 5vs Pacific Lutheran LutesW 101-79
1
Drought-Influenced Losses
Close losses (≤15 pts) where droughts significantly impacted the outcome. "Defensive cost" = points allowed during drought periods.
Colorado State Rams@ Colorado State RamsL 79-93Nov 12
26 pts allowed during 3 droughts (28% of 14-pt margin)
Major Factor
UC Davis Aggies@ UC Davis AggiesL 58-67Feb 7
23 pts allowed during 3 droughts (34.3% of 9-pt margin)
Major Factor
Montana State Bobcatsvs Montana State BobcatsL 80-83Dec 16
18 pts allowed during 2 droughts (21.7% of 3-pt margin)
Significant Factor
Montana Grizzlies@ Montana GrizzliesL 82-90Nov 14
16 pts allowed during 1 drought (17.8% of 8-pt margin)
Significant Factor
UC San Diego Tritons@ UC San Diego TritonsL 69-72Mar 11
13 pts allowed during 2 droughts (18.1% of 3-pt margin)
Significant Factor
UC Riverside Highlandersvs UC Riverside HighlandersL 84-88Dec 6
11 pts allowed during 1 drought (12.5% of 4-pt margin)
Significant Factor
Long Beach State Beach@ Long Beach State BeachL 66-74Jan 3
9 pts allowed during 1 drought (12.2% of 8-pt margin)
Significant Factor
Idaho Vandalsvs Idaho VandalsL 80-83Dec 21
8 pts allowed during 2 droughts (9.6% of 3-pt margin)
Minor Factor
Drought Killers
Players who most often ended Cal Poly Mustangs scoring droughts this season.
1
HM
Hamad Mousa
18% clutchⓘ
11
2
CW
Cayden Ward
33% clutchⓘ
6
3
PB
Peter Bandelj
0% clutchⓘ
5
4
TP
Troy Plumtree
2
5
KE
Kieran Elliott
2
6
AG
Austin Goode
2
3PT
2PT
FT