OC Tendencies · nektarinsights.com/octendencies · CFBD API 2020–2025
Pete Sterbick
Montana State · Big Sky
Montana State · Big Sky
Pete Sterbick
1 career stop · 966 offensive plays tracked
Scouting Report
Run-first offense
60% run rate over 966 plays — establishes the run as the primary play-caller identity.
3rd & Medium: throws it
67% pass — 27pp more pass-oriented than the 40% career average (43 plays).
Down Big: throws it
57% pass — 17pp more pass-oriented than the 40% career average (53 plays).
Goal Line: runs it
75% run — 15pp run-heavier than the 60% career average (81 plays).
Career Timeline
Overall Split
60.0%
Run
40.0%
Pass
58.3%
Success Rate
966 plays
2-Min Pass %
40.0%
n=130
52% success
After Big Gain
64.1% run
n=131
63% success
After Sack
51.8% pass
n=27
48% success
Inside Opp 40
59.0% run
n=378
57% success
Middle 8
50.8% pass
n=185
57% success
Tendency Strength — What Defenses Study
How readable is each pattern? Higher = more predictable to opposing coordinators
Exploitability Index
Grade C (49/100) — biggest tell: opening drive tell
Moderate variation
Moderate pressure adjustment
Highly adaptive to game flow
Scripted opener reveals identity
Run / Pass by Down
3rd Down by Distance
Run / Pass by Field Zone
EPA by Down
Game Script — How Play-Calling Shifts by Score
Run% and Pass% as the score differential changes — left = winning big, right = losing big
Situational Context
Post-Event Tendencies
Drive Opener by Zone
Advanced Analytics
Tempo — Pace of Play
Average seconds between plays (lower = faster tempo)
28.8s
Avg Pace
32.0s
Median
By Score State
Explosive Plays
Rushes 15+ yards and passes 15+ yards as a percentage of total plays
10.0%
Rush Explosive
19.7%
Pass Explosive
13.9%
Overall
966 plays
Opening Script — Scripted Drives
Run/pass split on opening drives by half