OC Tendencies Scouting Report · April 30, 2026
Pete Sterbick
OC · Montana State · Big Sky · 966 plays tracked
Run%
60%
Pass%
40%
EPA/Play
+0.38
Montana State 2025–present (FCS)
Key Findings
Run-first offense60% run rate over 966 plays — establishes the run as the primary play-caller identity.
3rd & Medium: throws it67% pass — 27pp more pass-oriented than the 40% career average (43 plays).
Down Big: throws it57% pass — 17pp more pass-oriented than the 40% career average (53 plays).
Goal Line: runs it75% run — 15pp run-heavier than the 60% career average (81 plays).
By Down
1st Down+0.23n=465
65% R
2nd Down+0.47n=317
60% R
3rd Down+0.61n=170
54% P
4th Down+0.97n=14
71% R
3rd Down by Distance
Short (1-3)+0.70n=60
77% R
Medium (4-6)+0.54n=43
67% P
Long (7-9)+0.19n=34
62% P
Very Long (10+)+0.96n=33
85% P
Field Zone
Own Territory+0.42n=588
61% R
Midfield+0.20n=208
55% R
Red Zone+0.49n=89
54% R
Goal Line+0.51n=81
75% R
Game Script
Up Big+0.49n=478
65% R
Up Close+0.38n=238
59% R
Tied+0.17n=145
50% P
Down Close+0.27n=52
60% R
Down Big+0.10n=53
57% P
Quick Stats
2-Min Drill+0.3452%n=130
60% R
After Big Gain+0.2963%n=131
64% R
After Sack+0.6348%n=27
52% P
Inside Opp 40+0.3357%n=378
59% R
Middle 8+0.4157%n=185
51% P
Post-Event Reactions
Big Gain (15+)+0.29n=131
64% R
Big Gain (20+)+0.44n=83
61% R
Sack+0.63n=27
52% P
Negative Play+0.35n=72
51% P
Stuffed Run+0.26n=78
53% R
1st Down Tendency+0.23n=465
65% R
Drive Openers by Zone
Own Territory+0.31n=141
71% R
Midfield-0.53n=12
75% R
Red Zone+0.60n=3
67% R
Predictability Index
After Big Gainruns 64%
3rd & Longpasses 62%
Overall Tendencyruns 60%
2-Minute Drillruns 60%
When Trailing Bigpasses 57%
Advanced Intel
Tempo28.8s avg / 32.0s median
Explosive10.0% rush / 19.7% pass
1st Half Opening Drive54% pass (n=92)
2nd Half Opening Drive59% run (n=98)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull Profile →