OC Tendencies scouting report · October 28, 2026
Pete Sterbick
OC · Montana State · Big Sky · 953 plays tracked
60%
Run %
41%
Pass %
+0.40
EPA per play
Montana State 2025–present (FCS)
Every play in this profile comes from FCS games, so it does not compare cleanly with FBS offenses.
Biggest splits vs his own average (descriptive, not a prediction)
Run-first offense60% run rate over 953 plays (2020–2025).
3rd & Medium: throws it69% pass — 29pp more pass-oriented than the 41% career average (42 plays).
Down Big: throws it57% pass — 16pp more pass-oriented than the 41% career average (53 plays).
Goal Line: runs it75% run — 15pp run-heavier than the 60% career average (79 plays).
By down
1st down+0.24n=459
64% R
2nd down+0.49n=312
59% R
3rd down+0.63n=168
55% P
4th down+0.97n=14
71% R
3rd down by distance
Short (1-3)+0.70n=60
77% R
Medium (4-6)+0.58n=42
69% P
Long (7-9)+0.22n=33
64% P
Very Long (10+)+0.96n=33
85% P
Field zone
Own Territory+0.44n=580
60% R
Midfield+0.20n=207
55% R
Red Zone+0.51n=87
53% R
Goal Line+0.53n=79
75% R
Game script
Up Big+0.43n=452
65% R
Up Close+0.47n=235
59% R
Tied+0.31n=157
50% R
Down Close+0.39n=56
59% R
Down Big+0.10n=53
57% P
Quick stats
2-Min Drill+0.4758%n=117
56% R
After Big Gain+0.3063%n=130
64% R
After Sack+0.6348%n=27
52% P
Inside Opp 40+0.3457%n=373
58% R
Middle 8+0.4258%n=183
51% P
Post-event reactions
Big Gain (15+)+0.30n=130
64% R
Big Gain (20+)+0.44n=83
61% R
Sack+0.63n=27
52% P
Negative Play+0.43n=67
55% P
Stuffed Run+0.33n=71
52% P
1st Down Tendency+0.24n=459
64% R
Drive openers by zone
Own Territory+0.32n=140
71% R
Midfield-0.53n=12
75% R
Red Zone+0.60n=3
67% R
Run/pass imbalance
After Big Gainruns 64%
3rd & Longpasses 64%
Overall Tendencyruns 60%
When Trailing Bigpasses 57%
2-Minute Drillruns 56%
Advanced intel
Tempo28.8s avg / 32.0s median
Explosive10.2% rush / 19.7% pass
1st Half Opening Drive54% pass (n=92)
2nd Half Opening Drive59% run (n=98)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull profile →