OC Tendencies Scouting Report · September 13, 2026
Pete Sterbick
OC · Montana State · Big Sky · 953 plays tracked
Run%
60%
Pass%
41%
EPA/Play
+0.40
Montana State 2025–present (FCS)
Key Findings
Run-first offense60% run rate over 953 plays — establishes the run as the primary play-caller identity.
3rd & Medium: throws it69% pass — 29pp more pass-oriented than the 41% career average (42 plays).
Down Big: throws it57% pass — 16pp more pass-oriented than the 41% career average (53 plays).
Goal Line: runs it75% run — 15pp run-heavier than the 60% career average (79 plays).
By Down
1st Down+0.24n=459
64% R
2nd Down+0.49n=312
59% R
3rd Down+0.63n=168
55% P
4th Down+0.97n=14
71% R
3rd Down by Distance
Short (1-3)+0.70n=60
77% R
Medium (4-6)+0.58n=42
69% P
Long (7-9)+0.22n=33
64% P
Very Long (10+)+0.96n=33
85% P
Field Zone
Own Territory+0.44n=580
60% R
Midfield+0.20n=207
55% R
Red Zone+0.51n=87
53% R
Goal Line+0.53n=79
75% R
Game Script
Up Big+0.43n=452
65% R
Up Close+0.47n=235
59% R
Tied+0.31n=157
50% R
Down Close+0.39n=56
59% R
Down Big+0.10n=53
57% P
Quick Stats
2-Min Drill+0.4758%n=117
56% R
After Big Gain+0.3063%n=130
64% R
After Sack+0.6348%n=27
52% P
Inside Opp 40+0.3457%n=373
58% R
Middle 8+0.4258%n=183
51% P
Post-Event Reactions
Big Gain (15+)+0.30n=130
64% R
Big Gain (20+)+0.44n=83
61% R
Sack+0.63n=27
52% P
Negative Play+0.43n=67
55% P
Stuffed Run+0.33n=71
52% P
1st Down Tendency+0.24n=459
64% R
Drive Openers by Zone
Own Territory+0.32n=140
71% R
Midfield-0.53n=12
75% R
Red Zone+0.60n=3
67% R
Run/Pass Imbalance
After Big Gainruns 64%
3rd & Longpasses 64%
Overall Tendencyruns 60%
When Trailing Bigpasses 57%
2-Minute Drillruns 56%
Advanced Intel
Tempo28.8s avg / 32.0s median
Explosive10.2% rush / 19.7% pass
1st Half Opening Drive54% pass (n=92)
2nd Half Opening Drive59% run (n=98)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull Profile →