OC Tendencies · nektarinsights.com/octendencies · CFBD API 2020–2025
Paul Shelton
UC Davis · Big Sky
UC Davis · Big Sky
Paul Shelton
1 career stop · 1,762 offensive plays tracked
Scouting Report
Balanced attack
47% run / 53% pass over 1,762 plays — keeps defenses honest with a near-even split.
3rd & Long: throws it
89% pass — 37pp more pass-oriented than the 53% career average (57 plays).
Garbage Time: runs it
64% run — 17pp run-heavier than the 47% career average (76 plays).
After a Sack: throws it
66% pass — 13pp more pass-oriented than the 53% career average (53 plays).
Career Timeline
Overall Split
47.1%
Run
52.9%
Pass
54.4%
Success Rate
1,762 plays
2-Min Pass %
51.0%
n=245
55% success
After Big Gain
56.5% run
n=255
53% success
After Sack
66.0% pass
n=53
26% success
Inside Opp 40
45.2% run
n=641
52% success
Middle 8
50.8% pass
n=299
56% success
Historical Run/Pass Imbalance
How far each split sits from 50/50 across this coach's career. Descriptive only — not evaluated as a prediction.
Run / Pass by Down
3rd Down by Distance
Run / Pass by Field Zone
EPA by Down
Game Script — How Play-Calling Shifts by Score
Run% and Pass% as the score differential changes — left = winning big, right = losing big
Year-over-Year Evolution
EPA / play
Situational Context
Post-Event Tendencies
Drive Opener by Zone
Advanced Analytics
Tempo — Pace of Play
Average seconds between plays (lower = faster tempo)
29.0s
Avg Pace
30.5s
Median
By Score State
Explosive Plays
Rushes 15+ yards and passes 15+ yards as a percentage of total plays
7.0%
Rush Explosive
21.8%
Pass Explosive
14.8%
Overall
1,762 plays
Opening Script — Scripted Drives
Run/pass split on opening drives by half