OC Tendencies · nektarinsights.com/octendencies · CFBD API 2020–2025
Paul Shelton
UC Davis · Big Sky
UC Davis · Big Sky
Paul Shelton
1 career stop · 1,762 offensive plays tracked
Every play in this profile comes from FCS games, so it does not compare cleanly with FBS offenses.
His biggest splits
Situations where his run/pass mix moves furthest from his own career average. Picked automatically, so the most extreme splits rise to the top; small samples overstate them. Descriptive, not a prediction.
Balanced attack
47% run / 53% pass over 1,762 plays (2020–2025).
3rd & Long: throws it
89% pass — 37pp more pass-oriented than the 53% career average (57 plays).
Garbage Time: runs it
64% run — 17pp run-heavier than the 47% career average (76 plays).
After a Sack: throws it
66% pass — 13pp more pass-oriented than the 53% career average (53 plays).
Career timeline
Overall split
47.1%
Run
52.9%
Pass
54.4%
Success rate
1,762 plays
2-min pass %
51.0%
n=245
55% success
After big gain
56.5% run
n=255
53% success
After sack
66.0% pass
n=53
26% success
Inside opp. 40
45.2% run
n=641
52% success
Middle 8
50.8% pass
n=299
56% success
Historical run/pass imbalance
How far each split sits from 50/50 across this coach's career. Descriptive only, not evaluated as a prediction.
Run / Pass by Down
3rd Down by Distance
Run / Pass by Field Zone
EPA by Down
Game script: how play-calling shifts by score
Run% and pass% as the score differential changes (left = winning big, right = losing big)
Year-over-Year Evolution
EPA per play
Situational Context
Post-Event Tendencies
Drive Opener by Zone
Advanced analytics
Tempo: pace of play
Average seconds between plays (lower = faster tempo)
29.0s
Avg pace
30.5s
Median
By score state
Explosive plays
Rushes 15+ yards and passes 15+ yards as a percentage of total plays
7.0%
Rush explosive
21.8%
Pass explosive
14.8%
Overall
1,762 plays
Opening script: scripted drives
Run/pass split on opening drives by half