OC Tendencies · nektarinsights.com/octendencies · CFBD API 2020–2025
Paul Shelton
UC Davis · Big Sky
UC Davis · Big Sky
Paul Shelton
1 career stop · 1,780 offensive plays tracked
Scouting Report
Balanced attack
48% run / 52% pass over 1,780 plays — keeps defenses honest with a near-even split.
3rd & Long: throws it
89% pass — 37pp more pass-oriented than the 52% career average (57 plays).
Garbage Time: runs it
64% run — 16pp run-heavier than the 48% career average (77 plays).
After a Sack: throws it
66% pass — 14pp more pass-oriented than the 52% career average (53 plays).
Career Timeline
Overall Split
47.6%
Run
52.4%
Pass
53.9%
Success Rate
1,780 plays
2-Min Pass %
47.7%
n=262
52% success
After Big Gain
57.5% run
n=259
52% success
After Sack
66.0% pass
n=53
26% success
Inside Opp 40
45.6% run
n=645
52% success
Middle 8
50.5% pass
n=301
55% success
Tendency Strength — What Defenses Study
How readable is each pattern? Higher = more predictable to opposing coordinators
Defenses will prep for this
Exploitability Index
Grade D (43/100) — biggest tell: pressure response
Moderate variation
Moderate pressure adjustment
Moderate adaptation
Opener matches overall style
Moderate tempo changes
Run / Pass by Down
3rd Down by Distance
Run / Pass by Field Zone
EPA by Down
Game Script — How Play-Calling Shifts by Score
Run% and Pass% as the score differential changes — left = winning big, right = losing big
Year-over-Year Evolution
EPA / play
Situational Context
Post-Event Tendencies
Drive Opener by Zone
Advanced Analytics
Tempo — Pace of Play
Average seconds between plays (lower = faster tempo)
29.0s
Avg Pace
31.0s
Median
By Score State
Explosive Plays
Rushes 15+ yards and passes 15+ yards as a percentage of total plays
7.0%
Rush Explosive
21.8%
Pass Explosive
14.7%
Overall
1,780 plays
Opening Script — Scripted Drives
Run/pass split on opening drives by half