OC Tendencies
← Paul Shelton Profile

OC Tendencies Scouting Report · September 13, 2026

Paul Shelton

OC · UC Davis · Big Sky · 1,762 plays tracked

Run%

47%

Pass%

53%

EPA/Play

+0.31

UC Davis 2024–present (FCS)

Key Findings

Balanced attack47% run / 53% pass over 1,762 plays — keeps defenses honest with a near-even split.
3rd & Long: throws it89% pass — 37pp more pass-oriented than the 53% career average (57 plays).
Garbage Time: runs it64% run — 17pp run-heavier than the 47% career average (76 plays).
After a Sack: throws it66% pass — 13pp more pass-oriented than the 53% career average (53 plays).

By Down

1st Down
51% R
+0.15n=836
2nd Down
51% P
+0.39n=589
3rd Down
67% P
+0.65n=312
4th Down
52% R
-0.46n=25

3rd Down by Distance

Short (1-3)
67% R
+1.07n=91
Medium (4-6)
80% P
+0.58n=86
Long (7-9)
89% P
+0.54n=57
Very Long (10+)
77% P
+0.31n=78

Field Zone

Own Territory
52% P
+0.36n=1121
Midfield
59% P
+0.14n=352
Red Zone
57% P
+0.14n=125
Goal Line
55% R
+0.45n=164

Game Script

Up Big
57% R
+0.34n=474
Up Close
53% P
+0.35n=319
Tied
54% P
+0.28n=282
Down Close
57% P
+0.26n=396
Down Big
62% P
+0.31n=291

Quick Stats

2-Min Drill
51% P
+0.2155%n=245
After Big Gain
56% R
+0.0553%n=255
After Sack
66% P
+0.3226%n=53
Inside Opp 40
55% P
+0.2252%n=641
Middle 8
51% P
+0.3556%n=299

Post-Event Reactions

Big Gain (15+)
56% R
+0.05n=255
Big Gain (20+)
60% R
+0.00n=156
Sack
66% P
+0.32n=53
Negative Play
60% P
+0.45n=113
Stuffed Run
56% P
+0.60n=107
1st Down Tendency
51% R
+0.15n=836

Drive Openers by Zone

Own Territory
59% R
+0.35n=288
Midfield
55% P
-0.18n=22
Red Zone
80% R
-0.08n=5
Goal Line
67% R
+0.43n=6

Run/Pass Imbalance

3rd & Longpasses 89%
After Sackpasses 66%
When Trailing Bigpasses 62%
Red Zonepasses 57%
After Big Gainruns 56%

Advanced Intel

Tempo29.0s avg / 30.5s median
Explosive7.0% rush / 21.8% pass
1st Half Opening Drive56% pass (n=147)
2nd Half Opening Drive52% run (n=123)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull Profile →