OC Tendencies scouting report · October 28, 2026
Paul Shelton
OC · UC Davis · Big Sky · 1,762 plays tracked
47%
Run %
53%
Pass %
+0.31
EPA per play
UC Davis 2024–present (FCS)
Every play in this profile comes from FCS games, so it does not compare cleanly with FBS offenses.
Biggest splits vs his own average (descriptive, not a prediction)
Balanced attack47% run / 53% pass over 1,762 plays (2020–2025).
3rd & Long: throws it89% pass — 37pp more pass-oriented than the 53% career average (57 plays).
Garbage Time: runs it64% run — 17pp run-heavier than the 47% career average (76 plays).
After a Sack: throws it66% pass — 13pp more pass-oriented than the 53% career average (53 plays).
By down
1st down+0.15n=836
51% R
2nd down+0.39n=589
51% P
3rd down+0.65n=312
67% P
4th down-0.46n=25
52% R
3rd down by distance
Short (1-3)+1.07n=91
67% R
Medium (4-6)+0.58n=86
80% P
Long (7-9)+0.54n=57
89% P
Very Long (10+)+0.31n=78
77% P
Field zone
Own Territory+0.36n=1121
52% P
Midfield+0.14n=352
59% P
Red Zone+0.14n=125
57% P
Goal Line+0.45n=164
55% R
Game script
Up Big+0.34n=474
57% R
Up Close+0.35n=319
53% P
Tied+0.28n=282
54% P
Down Close+0.26n=396
57% P
Down Big+0.31n=291
62% P
Quick stats
2-Min Drill+0.2155%n=245
51% P
After Big Gain+0.0553%n=255
56% R
After Sack+0.3226%n=53
66% P
Inside Opp 40+0.2252%n=641
55% P
Middle 8+0.3556%n=299
51% P
Post-event reactions
Big Gain (15+)+0.05n=255
56% R
Big Gain (20+)+0.00n=156
60% R
Sack+0.32n=53
66% P
Negative Play+0.45n=113
60% P
Stuffed Run+0.60n=107
56% P
1st Down Tendency+0.15n=836
51% R
Drive openers by zone
Own Territory+0.35n=288
59% R
Midfield-0.18n=22
55% P
Red Zone-0.08n=5
80% R
Goal Line+0.43n=6
67% R
Run/pass imbalance
3rd & Longpasses 89%
After Sackpasses 66%
When Trailing Bigpasses 62%
Red zone (11–20 yds)passes 57%
After Big Gainruns 56%
Advanced intel
Tempo29.0s avg / 30.5s median
Explosive7.0% rush / 21.8% pass
1st Half Opening Drive56% pass (n=147)
2nd Half Opening Drive52% run (n=123)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull profile →