OC Tendencies
← Paul Shelton Profile

OC Tendencies Scouting Report · April 30, 2026

Paul Shelton

OC · UC Davis · Big Sky · 1,780 plays tracked

Run%

48%

Pass%

52%

EPA/Play

+0.30

UC Davis 2024–present (FCS)

Key Findings

Balanced attack48% run / 52% pass over 1,780 plays — keeps defenses honest with a near-even split.
3rd & Long: throws it89% pass — 37pp more pass-oriented than the 52% career average (57 plays).
Garbage Time: runs it64% run — 16pp run-heavier than the 48% career average (77 plays).
After a Sack: throws it66% pass — 14pp more pass-oriented than the 52% career average (53 plays).

By Down

1st Down
52% R
+0.14n=845
2nd Down
51% P
+0.38n=595
3rd Down
67% P
+0.64n=315
4th Down
52% R
-0.46n=25

3rd Down by Distance

Short (1-3)
67% R
+1.07n=91
Medium (4-6)
80% P
+0.58n=86
Long (7-9)
89% P
+0.54n=57
Very Long (10+)
74% P
+0.28n=81

Field Zone

Own Territory
51% P
+0.35n=1135
Midfield
58% P
+0.13n=356
Red Zone
57% P
+0.14n=125
Goal Line
55% R
+0.45n=164

Game Script

Up Big
57% R
+0.47n=512
Up Close
51% P
+0.31n=328
Tied
54% P
+0.22n=271
Down Close
57% P
+0.18n=388
Down Big
61% P
+0.21n=281

Quick Stats

2-Min Drill
52% R
+0.1552%n=262
After Big Gain
58% R
+0.0252%n=259
After Sack
66% P
+0.3226%n=53
Inside Opp 40
54% P
+0.2152%n=645
Middle 8
51% P
+0.3555%n=301

Post-Event Reactions

Big Gain (15+)
58% R
+0.02n=259
Big Gain (20+)
61% R
-0.04n=160
Sack
66% P
+0.32n=53
Negative Play
56% P
+0.37n=122
Stuffed Run
52% P
+0.53n=117
1st Down Tendency
52% R
+0.14n=845

Drive Openers by Zone

Own Territory
60% R
+0.32n=294
Midfield
55% P
-0.18n=22
Red Zone
80% R
-0.08n=5
Goal Line
67% R
+0.43n=6

Predictability Index

3rd & Longpasses 89%

Defenses will prepare for this

After Sackpasses 66%
When Trailing Bigpasses 61%
After Big Gainruns 58%
Red Zonepasses 57%

Advanced Intel

Tempo29.0s avg / 31.0s median
Explosive7.0% rush / 21.8% pass
1st Half Opening Drive56% pass (n=147)
2nd Half Opening Drive52% run (n=123)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull Profile →