OC Tendencies · nektarinsights.com/octendencies · CFBD API 2020–2025
Pat Shurmur
Colorado · Big 12
Colorado · Big 12
Pat Shurmur
1 career stop · 2,391 offensive plays tracked
Scouting Report
Pass-first offense
60% pass rate over 2,391 plays — relies on the passing game to drive the offense.
3rd & Medium: throws it
86% pass — 26pp more pass-oriented than the 60% career average (105 plays).
Goal Line: runs it
54% run — 14pp run-heavier than the 40% career average (139 plays).
After Big Gain: runs it
51% run — 10pp run-heavier than the 40% career average (272 plays).
Career Timeline
Overall Split
40.4%
Run
59.6%
Pass
45.2%
Success Rate
2,391 plays
2-Min Pass %
63.7%
n=350
47% success
After Big Gain
50.7% run
n=272
47% success
After Sack
57.9% pass
n=126
33% success
Inside Opp 40
42.3% run
n=730
48% success
Middle 8
62.3% pass
n=478
45% success
Tendency Strength — What Defenses Study
How readable is each pattern? Higher = more predictable to opposing coordinators
Defenses will prep for this
Exploitability Index
Grade D (39/100) — biggest tell: game script rigidity
Moderate variation
Composed under pressure
Stubborn — same plan regardless of score
Opener matches overall style
Steady tempo — hard to read
Run / Pass by Down
3rd Down by Distance
Run / Pass by Field Zone
EPA by Down
Game Script — How Play-Calling Shifts by Score
Run% and Pass% as the score differential changes — left = winning big, right = losing big
Year-over-Year Evolution
EPA / play
Situational Context
Post-Event Tendencies
Drive Opener by Zone
Advanced Analytics
Tempo — Pace of Play
Average seconds between plays (lower = faster tempo)
26.8s
Avg Pace
29.0s
Median
By Score State
Play Action
Play action usage rate and EPA comparison
0%
PA Rate
+0.000
PA EPA
+0.268
Non-PA EPA
1,425 pass plays
Explosive Plays
Rushes 15+ yards and passes 15+ yards as a percentage of total plays
5.6%
Rush Explosive
15.6%
Pass Explosive
11.5%
Overall
2,391 plays
Opening Script — Scripted Drives
Run/pass split on opening drives by half