OC Tendencies · nektarinsights.com/octendencies · CFBD API 2020–2025
Pat Shurmur
Colorado · Big 12
Colorado · Big 12
Pat Shurmur
1 career stop · 2,385 offensive plays tracked
His biggest splits
Situations where his run/pass mix moves furthest from his own career average. Picked automatically, so the most extreme splits rise to the top; small samples overstate them. Descriptive, not a prediction.
Pass-first offense
60% pass rate over 2,385 plays (2020–2025).
3rd & Medium: throws it
87% pass — 27pp more pass-oriented than the 60% career average (104 plays).
Goal Line: runs it
54% run — 14pp run-heavier than the 40% career average (139 plays).
After Big Gain: runs it
50% run — 10pp run-heavier than the 40% career average (272 plays).
Career timeline
Overall split
40.3%
Run
59.8%
Pass
45.3%
Success rate
2,385 plays
2-min pass %
64.8%
n=344
47% success
After big gain
50.4% run
n=272
47% success
After sack
57.9% pass
n=126
33% success
Inside opp. 40
42.0% run
n=726
48% success
Middle 8
62.6% pass
n=476
45% success
Historical run/pass imbalance
How far each split sits from 50/50 across this coach's career. Descriptive only, not evaluated as a prediction.
Run / Pass by Down
3rd Down by Distance
Run / Pass by Field Zone
EPA by Down
Game script: how play-calling shifts by score
Run% and pass% as the score differential changes (left = winning big, right = losing big)
Year-over-Year Evolution
EPA per play
Situational Context
Post-Event Tendencies
Drive Opener by Zone
Advanced analytics
Tempo: pace of play
Average seconds between plays (lower = faster tempo)
26.8s
Avg pace
29.0s
Median
By score state
Explosive plays
Rushes 15+ yards and passes 15+ yards as a percentage of total plays
5.6%
Rush explosive
15.6%
Pass explosive
11.6%
Overall
2,385 plays
Opening script: scripted drives
Run/pass split on opening drives by half