OC Tendencies
← Pat Shurmur profile

OC Tendencies scouting report · November 9, 2026

Pat Shurmur

OC · Colorado · Big 12 · 2,385 plays tracked

40%

Run %

60%

Pass %

+0.20

EPA per play

Colorado 2023–2025

Biggest splits vs his own average (descriptive, not a prediction)

Pass-first offense60% pass rate over 2,385 plays (2020–2025).
3rd & Medium: throws it87% pass — 27pp more pass-oriented than the 60% career average (104 plays).
Goal Line: runs it54% run — 14pp run-heavier than the 40% career average (139 plays).
After Big Gain: runs it50% run — 10pp run-heavier than the 40% career average (272 plays).

By down

1st down
53% P
-0.03n=1029
2nd down
60% P
+0.23n=798
3rd down
73% P
+0.59n=500
4th down
52% P
+0.43n=58

3rd down by distance

Short (1-3)
59% R
+0.57n=128
Medium (4-6)
87% P
+0.70n=104
Long (7-9)
84% P
+0.26n=108
Very Long (10+)
84% P
+0.76n=160

Field zone

Own Territory
61% P
+0.21n=1659
Midfield
62% P
+0.03n=425
Red Zone
59% P
+0.18n=162
Goal Line
54% R
+0.60n=139

Game script

Up Big
58% P
+0.20n=419
Up Close
58% P
+0.21n=285
Tied
56% P
+0.17n=450
Down Close
62% P
+0.20n=540
Down Big
62% P
+0.21n=691

Quick stats

2-Min Drill
65% P
+0.2947%n=344
After Big Gain
50% R
+0.0747%n=272
After Sack
58% P
+0.2533%n=126
Inside Opp 40
58% P
+0.1748%n=726
Middle 8
63% P
+0.2545%n=476

Post-event reactions

Big Gain (15+)
50% R
+0.07n=272
Big Gain (20+)
52% P
+0.01n=172
Sack
58% P
+0.25n=126
Negative Play
65% P
+0.26n=248
Stuffed Run
66% P
+0.32n=171
1st Down Tendency
53% P
-0.03n=1029

Drive openers by zone

Own Territory
50% R
+0.02n=408
Midfield
75% P
-0.03n=24
Red Zone
64% P
+0.16n=11
Goal Line
55% R
+0.01n=11

Run/pass imbalance

3rd & Longpasses 84%
2-Minute Drillpasses 65%
When Trailing Bigpasses 62%
Overall Tendencypasses 60%
Red zone (11–20 yds)passes 59%

Advanced intel

Tempo26.8s avg / 29.0s median
Explosive5.6% rush / 15.6% pass
1st Half Opening Drive59% pass (n=203)
2nd Half Opening Drive53% pass (n=189)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull profile →