OC Tendencies Scouting Report · May 12, 2026
Pat Shurmur
OC · Colorado · Big 12 · 2,391 plays tracked
Run%
40%
Pass%
60%
EPA/Play
+0.20
Colorado 2023–2025
Key Findings
Pass-first offense60% pass rate over 2,391 plays — relies on the passing game to drive the offense.
3rd & Medium: throws it86% pass — 26pp more pass-oriented than the 60% career average (105 plays).
Goal Line: runs it54% run — 14pp run-heavier than the 40% career average (139 plays).
After Big Gain: runs it51% run — 10pp run-heavier than the 40% career average (272 plays).
By Down
1st Down-0.03n=1032
53% P
2nd Down+0.23n=799
60% P
3rd Down+0.59n=501
73% P
4th Down+0.36n=59
51% P
3rd Down by Distance
Short (1-3)+0.57n=128
59% R
Medium (4-6)+0.69n=105
86% P
Long (7-9)+0.26n=108
84% P
Very Long (10+)+0.76n=160
84% P
Field Zone
Own Territory+0.21n=1661
60% P
Midfield+0.03n=427
61% P
Red Zone+0.15n=164
58% P
Goal Line+0.60n=139
54% R
Game Script
Up Big+0.31n=441
58% P
Up Close+0.39n=310
58% P
Tied+0.11n=435
55% P
Down Close+0.14n=530
62% P
Down Big+0.13n=675
62% P
Quick Stats
2-Min Drill+0.2647%n=350
64% P
After Big Gain+0.0747%n=272
51% R
After Sack+0.2533%n=126
58% P
Inside Opp 40+0.1648%n=730
58% P
Middle 8+0.2445%n=478
62% P
Post-Event Reactions
Big Gain (15+)+0.07n=272
51% R
Big Gain (20+)+0.01n=172
51% P
Sack+0.25n=126
58% P
Negative Play+0.24n=252
64% P
Stuffed Run+0.28n=175
65% P
1st Down Tendency-0.03n=1032
53% P
Drive Openers by Zone
Own Territory+0.01n=410
51% R
Midfield-0.05n=25
72% P
Red Zone+0.16n=11
64% P
Goal Line+0.01n=11
55% R
Predictability Index
3rd & Longpasses 84%
Defenses will prepare for this
2-Minute Drillpasses 64%
When Trailing Bigpasses 62%
Overall Tendencypasses 60%
After Sackpasses 58%
Advanced Intel
Tempo26.8s avg / 29.0s median
Play Action0% rate · +0.00 EPA
Explosive5.6% rush / 15.6% pass
1st Half Opening Drive59% pass (n=203)
2nd Half Opening Drive53% pass (n=189)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull Profile →