OC Tendencies
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OC Tendencies Scouting Report · September 10, 2026

Pat Shurmur

OC · Colorado · Big 12 · 2,385 plays tracked

Run%

40%

Pass%

60%

EPA/Play

+0.20

Colorado 2023–2025

Key Findings

Pass-first offense60% pass rate over 2,385 plays — relies on the passing game to drive the offense.
3rd & Medium: throws it87% pass — 27pp more pass-oriented than the 60% career average (104 plays).
Goal Line: runs it54% run — 14pp run-heavier than the 40% career average (139 plays).
After Big Gain: runs it50% run — 10pp run-heavier than the 40% career average (272 plays).

By Down

1st Down
53% P
-0.03n=1029
2nd Down
60% P
+0.23n=798
3rd Down
73% P
+0.59n=500
4th Down
52% P
+0.43n=58

3rd Down by Distance

Short (1-3)
59% R
+0.57n=128
Medium (4-6)
87% P
+0.70n=104
Long (7-9)
84% P
+0.26n=108
Very Long (10+)
84% P
+0.76n=160

Field Zone

Own Territory
61% P
+0.21n=1659
Midfield
62% P
+0.03n=425
Red Zone
59% P
+0.18n=162
Goal Line
54% R
+0.60n=139

Game Script

Up Big
58% P
+0.20n=419
Up Close
58% P
+0.21n=285
Tied
56% P
+0.17n=450
Down Close
62% P
+0.20n=540
Down Big
62% P
+0.21n=691

Quick Stats

2-Min Drill
65% P
+0.2947%n=344
After Big Gain
50% R
+0.0747%n=272
After Sack
58% P
+0.2533%n=126
Inside Opp 40
58% P
+0.1748%n=726
Middle 8
63% P
+0.2545%n=476

Post-Event Reactions

Big Gain (15+)
50% R
+0.07n=272
Big Gain (20+)
52% P
+0.01n=172
Sack
58% P
+0.25n=126
Negative Play
65% P
+0.26n=248
Stuffed Run
66% P
+0.32n=171
1st Down Tendency
53% P
-0.03n=1029

Drive Openers by Zone

Own Territory
50% R
+0.02n=408
Midfield
75% P
-0.03n=24
Red Zone
64% P
+0.16n=11
Goal Line
55% R
+0.01n=11

Run/Pass Imbalance

3rd & Longpasses 84%
2-Minute Drillpasses 65%
When Trailing Bigpasses 62%
Overall Tendencypasses 60%
Red Zonepasses 59%

Advanced Intel

Tempo26.8s avg / 29.0s median
Explosive5.6% rush / 15.6% pass
1st Half Opening Drive59% pass (n=203)
2nd Half Opening Drive53% pass (n=189)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull Profile →