OC Tendencies · nektarinsights.com/octendencies · CFBD API 2020–2025
Matt Lubick
Kansas · Big 12
Kansas · Big 12
Matt Lubick
5 career stops · 2,940 offensive plays tracked
Scouting Report
Balanced attack
54% run / 46% pass over 2,940 plays — keeps defenses honest with a near-even split.
3rd & Long: throws it
73% pass — 27pp more pass-oriented than the 46% career average (88 plays).
Goal Line: runs it
78% run — 25pp run-heavier than the 54% career average (227 plays).
2-Min Drill: throws it
60% pass — 14pp more pass-oriented than the 46% career average (473 plays).
Career Timeline
Overall Split
53.9%
Run
46.1%
Pass
51.9%
Success Rate
2,940 plays
2-Min Pass %
60.5%
n=473
47% success
After Big Gain
60.2% run
n=362
55% success
After Sack
58.0% pass
n=81
32% success
Inside Opp 40
60.4% run
n=1040
52% success
Middle 8
50.2% pass
n=520
52% success
Tendency Strength — What Defenses Study
How readable is each pattern? Higher = more predictable to opposing coordinators
Shows on film
Exploitability Index
Grade D (38/100) — biggest tell: tempo tell
Moderate variation
Moderate pressure adjustment
Highly adaptive to game flow
Opener matches overall style
Moderate tempo changes
Run / Pass by Down
3rd Down by Distance
Run / Pass by Field Zone
EPA by Down
Game Script — How Play-Calling Shifts by Score
Run% and Pass% as the score differential changes — left = winning big, right = losing big
Year-over-Year Evolution
EPA / play
Situational Context
Post-Event Tendencies
Drive Opener by Zone
Advanced Analytics
Tempo — Pace of Play
Average seconds between plays (lower = faster tempo)
29.3s
Avg Pace
32.8s
Median
By Score State
Explosive Plays
Rushes 15+ yards and passes 15+ yards as a percentage of total plays
7.7%
Rush Explosive
18.1%
Pass Explosive
12.5%
Overall
2,940 plays
Opening Script — Scripted Drives
Run/pass split on opening drives by half