OC Tendencies · nektarinsights.com/octendencies · CFBD API 2020–2025
Matt Lubick
Nevada · MWC
His biggest splits
Situations where his run/pass mix moves furthest from his own career average. Picked automatically, so the most extreme splits rise to the top; small samples overstate them. Descriptive, not a prediction.
Run-first offense
54% run rate over 2,175 plays (2020–2025).
3rd & Long: throws it
74% pass — 28pp more pass-oriented than the 46% career average (61 plays).
Goal Line: runs it
79% run — 25pp run-heavier than the 54% career average (170 plays).
2-Min Drill: throws it
61% pass — 15pp more pass-oriented than the 46% career average (366 plays).
Career timeline
Overall split
54.1%
Run
45.9%
Pass
51.3%
Success rate
2,175 plays
2-min pass %
61.2%
n=366
47% success
After big gain
60.2% run
n=266
56% success
After sack
58.2% pass
n=67
36% success
Inside opp. 40
61.4% run
n=764
51% success
Middle 8
50.0% pass
n=406
49% success
Historical run/pass imbalance
How far each split sits from 50/50 across this coach's career. Descriptive only, not evaluated as a prediction.
Run / Pass by Down
3rd Down by Distance
Run / Pass by Field Zone
EPA by Down
Game script: how play-calling shifts by score
Run% and pass% as the score differential changes (left = winning big, right = losing big)
Year-over-Year Evolution
EPA per play
Situational Context
Post-Event Tendencies
Drive Opener by Zone
Advanced analytics
Tempo: pace of play
Average seconds between plays (lower = faster tempo)
29.0s
Avg pace
31.5s
Median
By score state
Explosive plays
Rushes 15+ yards and passes 15+ yards as a percentage of total plays
7.8%
Rush explosive
17.9%
Pass explosive
12.4%
Overall
2,175 plays
Opening script: scripted drives
Run/pass split on opening drives by half