OC Tendencies scouting report · October 28, 2026
Matt Lubick
OC · Nevada · MWC · 2,175 plays tracked
54%
Run %
46%
Pass %
+0.27
EPA per play
Nevada 2024–2024Nebraska 2020–2021Washington 2017–2018Oregon 2016–2016
Biggest splits vs his own average (descriptive, not a prediction)
Run-first offense54% run rate over 2,175 plays (2020–2025).
3rd & Long: throws it74% pass — 28pp more pass-oriented than the 46% career average (61 plays).
Goal Line: runs it79% run — 25pp run-heavier than the 54% career average (170 plays).
2-Min Drill: throws it61% pass — 15pp more pass-oriented than the 46% career average (366 plays).
By down
1st down+0.12n=967
59% R
2nd down+0.23n=715
53% R
3rd down+0.59n=428
55% P
4th down+0.59n=65
51% P
3rd down by distance
Short (1-3)+0.69n=126
80% R
Medium (4-6)+0.62n=107
68% P
Long (7-9)+0.58n=61
74% P
Very Long (10+)+0.48n=134
69% P
Field zone
Own Territory+0.32n=1411
50% R
Midfield+0.04n=453
54% R
Red Zone+0.11n=141
65% R
Goal Line+0.52n=170
79% R
Game script
Up Big+0.36n=323
63% R
Up Close+0.15n=234
62% R
Tied+0.28n=411
59% R
Down Close+0.21n=703
52% R
Down Big+0.32n=504
56% P
Quick stats
2-Min Drill+0.1947%n=366
61% P
After Big Gain+0.1556%n=266
60% R
After Sack+0.2036%n=67
58% P
Inside Opp 40+0.1651%n=764
61% R
Middle 8+0.2749%n=406
50% R
Post-event reactions
Big Gain (15+)+0.15n=266
60% R
Big Gain (20+)+0.13n=162
61% R
Sack+0.20n=67
58% P
Negative Play+0.29n=173
53% P
Stuffed Run+0.20n=175
50% R
1st Down Tendency+0.12n=967
59% R
Drive openers by zone
Own Territory+0.22n=323
56% R
Midfield-0.05n=38
55% R
Red Zone+0.72n=3
100% P
Goal Line+0.24n=7
86% R
Run/pass imbalance
3rd & Longpasses 74%
Red zone (11–20 yds)runs 65%
2-Minute Drillpasses 61%
After Big Gainruns 60%
After Sackpasses 58%
Advanced intel
Tempo29.0s avg / 31.5s median
Explosive7.8% rush / 17.9% pass
1st Half Opening Drive61% run (n=224)
2nd Half Opening Drive60% run (n=215)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull profile →