OC Tendencies · nektarinsights.com/octendencies · CFBD API 2020–2025
Ian Shoemaker
Idaho · Sun Belt
Idaho · Sun Belt
Ian Shoemaker
3 career stops · 1,712 offensive plays tracked
FBS games only: 79 plays from FCS stops are left out so his numbers compare with other FBS offenses.
His biggest splits
Situations where his run/pass mix moves furthest from his own career average. Picked automatically, so the most extreme splits rise to the top; small samples overstate them. Descriptive, not a prediction.
Pass-first offense
62% pass rate over 1,712 plays (2020–2025).
3rd & Long: throws it
91% pass — 29pp more pass-oriented than the 62% career average (69 plays).
Goal Line: runs it
59% run — 21pp run-heavier than the 38% career average (114 plays).
Up Big: runs it
51% run — 13pp run-heavier than the 38% career average (136 plays).
Career timeline
Overall split
37.6%
Run
62.4%
Pass
45.2%
Success rate
1,712 plays
2-min pass %
67.0%
n=197
41% success
After big gain
42.9% run
n=168
52% success
After sack
70.4% pass
n=54
44% success
Inside opp. 40
40.4% run
n=550
43% success
Middle 8
67.5% pass
n=286
42% success
Historical run/pass imbalance
How far each split sits from 50/50 across this coach's career. Descriptive only, not evaluated as a prediction.
Run / Pass by Down
3rd Down by Distance
Run / Pass by Field Zone
EPA by Down
Game script: how play-calling shifts by score
Run% and pass% as the score differential changes (left = winning big, right = losing big)
Year-over-Year Evolution
EPA per play
Situational Context
Post-Event Tendencies
Drive Opener by Zone
Advanced analytics
Tempo: pace of play
Average seconds between plays (lower = faster tempo)
28.5s
Avg pace
32.0s
Median
By score state
Explosive plays
Rushes 15+ yards and passes 15+ yards as a percentage of total plays
6.8%
Rush explosive
12.0%
Pass explosive
10.1%
Overall
1,712 plays
Opening script: scripted drives
Run/pass split on opening drives by half