OC Tendencies · nektarinsights.com/octendencies · CFBD API 2020–2025
Ian Shoemaker
Idaho · Sun Belt
Idaho · Sun Belt
Ian Shoemaker
3 career stops · 1,796 offensive plays tracked
Scouting Report
Pass-first offense
62% pass rate over 1,796 plays — relies on the passing game to drive the offense.
3rd & Long: throws it
92% pass — 30pp more pass-oriented than the 62% career average (72 plays).
After a Sack: throws it
88% pass — 26pp more pass-oriented than the 62% career average (133 plays).
Goal Line: runs it
58% run — 20pp run-heavier than the 38% career average (126 plays).
Career Timeline
Overall Split
38.1%
Run
61.9%
Pass
45.3%
Success Rate
1,796 plays
2-Min Pass %
64.0%
n=214
41% success
After Big Gain
29.4% run
n=248
35% success
After Sack
28.6% pass
n=133
18% success
Inside Opp 40
41.2% run
n=590
43% success
Middle 8
66.6% pass
n=299
42% success
Tendency Strength — What Defenses Study
How readable is each pattern? Higher = more predictable to opposing coordinators
Defenses will prep for this
Defenses will prep for this
Shows on film
Exploitability Index
Grade D (31/100) — biggest tell: predictability
Moderate variation
Composed under pressure
Highly adaptive to game flow
Opener matches overall style
Steady tempo — hard to read
Run / Pass by Down
3rd Down by Distance
Run / Pass by Field Zone
EPA by Down
Game Script — How Play-Calling Shifts by Score
Run% and Pass% as the score differential changes — left = winning big, right = losing big
Year-over-Year Evolution
EPA / play
Situational Context
Post-Event Tendencies
Drive Opener by Zone
Advanced Analytics
Tempo — Pace of Play
Average seconds between plays (lower = faster tempo)
27.1s
Avg Pace
30.0s
Median
By Score State
Explosive Plays
Rushes 15+ yards and passes 15+ yards as a percentage of total plays
6.9%
Rush Explosive
12.3%
Pass Explosive
10.2%
Overall
1,796 plays
After Timeout
What the OC calls on the first play after a timeout
0%
Run
0%
Pass
79 plays
Opening Script — Scripted Drives
Run/pass split on opening drives by half