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Saturday, January 3, 2026

Conference game

Drought outlookSeason rates vs final result

Penn State Nittany Lions

High confidence

2

est. droughts

4:02

avg duration

9

pts/drought

est. 21 pts ceded/game

Final results

✓ As expected

Droughts

~2→2

+0

Pts ceded

~21→15

-6

Illinois Fighting Illini

Moderate confidence

1

est. droughts

3:43

avg duration

7

pts/drought

est. 5 pts ceded/game

Final results

✗ Unexpected drought

Droughts

~1→2

+1

Pts ceded

~5→8

+3

Penn State Nittany Lions averages 1 droughts/game  · Illinois Fighting Illini forces 2 opp. droughts/game

4

Total droughts

Both teams combined

2

Penn State Nittany Lions droughts

2

Illinois Fighting Illini droughts

4:01

Longest drought

Penn State Nittany Lions

23

Drought point swing

Total drought cost (pts)

Illinois Fighting Illini drought cost

2 droughts • 8 pts drought cost

8

Drought cost (pts)

Actual point differential change

Penn State Nittany Lions drought cost

2 droughts • 15 pts drought cost

15

Drought cost (pts)

Actual point differential change

Game timeline

All droughts

Notable (3-4 min)Significant (4-5 min)Critical (5+ min)
Penn State Nittany Lions

Penn State Nittany Lions

2
1st Halfsignificant

Score: 13 → 14 · Opponent scored 10 pts

Ended by: Ivan Juric makes free throw 1 of 2

Free Throw

4:01

10.0 pts

1H → 2Hnotable

Score: 26 → 29 · Opponent scored 5 pts

Ended by: Ivan Juric makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kayden Mingo assists)

3-Pointer

3:31

5.0 pts

Illinois Fighting Illini

Illinois Fighting Illini

2
2nd Halfnotable

Score: 48 → 51 · Opponent scored 2 pts

Ended by: Jake Davis makes 24-foot three point jumper (David Mirkovic assists)

3-Pointer

3:19

2.0 pts

2nd HalfnotableTO called

Score: 57 → 59 · Opponent scored 6 pts

Ended by: Andrej Stojakovic makes driving layup

2-Pointer

3:16

6.0 pts