Iowa State · Big 12

Tyler Roehl

2 career stops · 1,697 offensive plays tracked

Game Prep Sheet Scouting Report

Scouting Report

Run-first offense

66% run rate over 1,697 plays — establishes the run as the primary play-caller identity.

3rd & Very Long: throws it

89% pass — 56pp more pass-oriented than the 34% career average (75 plays).

After Big Gain: runs it

79% run — 12pp run-heavier than the 66% career average (241 plays).

Goal Line: runs it

78% run — 12pp run-heavier than the 66% career average (150 plays).

Career Timeline

Iowa StateBig 12

2026–present

North Dakota StateMVFCFCS

2019–2023

Overall Split

66.4%

Run

33.6%

Pass

54.0%

Success Rate

1,697 plays

2-Min Pass %

38.0%

n=195

46% success

After Big Gain

78.8% run

n=241

58% success

After Sack

54.8% pass

n=31

52% success

Inside Opp 40

70.2% run

n=671

56% success

Middle 8

38.3% pass

n=261

51% success

Tendency Strength — What Defenses Study

How readable is each pattern? Higher = more predictable to opposing coordinators

3rd & Longpasses 80%

Defenses will prep for this

After Big Gainruns 79%

Defenses will prep for this

Red Zoneruns 73%

Shows on film

Overall Tendencyruns 66%

2-Minute Drillruns 62%

When Trailing Bigruns 57%

After Sackpasses 55%

Exploitability Index

B62/100

Grade B (62/100) — biggest tell: pressure response

Predictabilityσ=0.090

Unpredictable — hard to game-plan

Pressure Response34pp shift

Panics under pressure — clear tell

Game Script Rigidity14pp swing

Moderate adaptation

Opening Drive Tell7pp deviation

Opener differs from base

Tempo Tell10.5s shift

Tempo shift telegraphs intent

Run / Pass by Down

3rd Down by Distance

Run / Pass by Field Zone

EPA by Down

Game Script — How Play-Calling Shifts by Score

Run% and Pass% as the score differential changes — left = winning big, right = losing big

Year-over-Year Evolution

EPA / play

Situational Context

Post-Event Tendencies

Drive Opener by Zone

Advanced Analytics

Tempo — Pace of Play

Average seconds between plays (lower = faster tempo)

31.7s

Avg Pace

34.0s

Median

By Score State

Up Big

36.3sn=74

Up Close

34.9sn=42

Tied

33.4sn=53

Down Big

25.8sn=68

Down Close

28.3sn=52

Play Action

Play action usage rate and EPA comparison

PA Rate

+0.000

PA EPA

+0.440

Non-PA EPA

570 pass plays

Explosive Plays

Rushes 15+ yards and passes 15+ yards as a percentage of total plays

11.5%

Rush Explosive

20.0%

Pass Explosive

14.3%

Overall

1,697 plays

Opening Script — Scripted Drives

Run/pass split on opening drives by half

1st Half Opening Drive

60% run+0.532 EPAn=182

2nd Half Opening Drive

62% run+0.347 EPAn=167