OC Tendencies · nektarinsights.com/octendencies · CFBD API 2020–2025
Shawn Bell
North Texas · C-USA
North Texas · C-USA
Shawn Bell
1 career stop · 4,200 offensive plays tracked
Scouting Report
Run-first offense
54% run rate over 4,200 plays — establishes the run as the primary play-caller identity.
3rd & Long: throws it
80% pass — 34pp more pass-oriented than the 46% career average (185 plays).
Garbage Time: runs it
70% run — 16pp run-heavier than the 54% career average (240 plays).
Goal Line: runs it
70% run — 15pp run-heavier than the 54% career average (317 plays).
Career Timeline
Overall Split
54.3%
Run
45.7%
Pass
49.1%
Success Rate
4,200 plays
2-Min Pass %
53.2%
n=528
43% success
After Big Gain
58.7% run
n=509
After Sack
60.0% pass
n=80
Inside Opp 40
57.5% run
n=1505
50% success
Middle 8
49.3% pass
n=710
44% success
Tendency Strength — What Defenses Study
How readable is each pattern? Higher = more predictable to opposing coordinators
Defenses will prep for this
Exploitability Index
Grade C (51/100) — biggest tell: pressure response
Moderate variation
Moderate pressure adjustment
Moderate adaptation
Run / Pass by Down
3rd Down by Distance
Run / Pass by Field Zone
EPA by Down
Game Script — How Play-Calling Shifts by Score
Run% and Pass% as the score differential changes — left = winning big, right = losing big
Year-over-Year Evolution
EPA / play
Situational Context
Post-Event Tendencies
Drive Opener by Zone