OC Tendencies Scouting Report · May 12, 2026

Shawn Bell

OC · North Texas · C-USA · 4,200 plays tracked

Run%

54%

Pass%

46%

EPA/Play

+0.27

North Texas 2020–2020

Key Findings

Run-first offense54% run rate over 4,200 plays — establishes the run as the primary play-caller identity.

3rd & Long: throws it80% pass — 34pp more pass-oriented than the 46% career average (185 plays).

Garbage Time: runs it70% run — 16pp run-heavier than the 54% career average (240 plays).

Goal Line: runs it70% run — 15pp run-heavier than the 54% career average (317 plays).

By Down

1st Down

61% R

+0.11n=1861

2nd Down

56% R

+0.22n=1363

3rd Down

60% P

+0.61n=843

4th Down

57% P

+0.84n=133

3rd Down by Distance

Short (1-3)

67% R

+0.65n=236

Medium (4-6)

62% P

+0.49n=214

Long (7-9)

80% P

+0.61n=185

Very Long (10+)

72% P

+0.67n=208

Field Zone

Own Territory

53% R

+0.29n=2695

Midfield

52% R

+0.05n=823

Red Zone

58% R

+0.32n=365

Goal Line

70% R

+0.57n=317

Game Script

Up Big

63% R

+0.36n=1165

Up Close

56% R

+0.30n=955

Tied

50% R

+0.25n=698

Down Close

52% P

+0.19n=808

Down Big

53% P

+0.18n=574

Quick Stats

2-Min Drill

53% P

+0.1443%n=528

After Big Gain

59% R

+0.11n=509

After Sack

60% P

+0.23n=80

Inside Opp 40

57% R

+0.2350%n=1505

Middle 8

51% R

+0.1544%n=710

Post-Event Reactions

Big Gain (15+)

59% R

+0.11n=509

Big Gain (20+)

59% R

+0.08n=308

Sack

60% P

+0.23n=80

Negative Play

56% P

+0.29n=296

Stuffed Run

53% P

+0.35n=374

1st Down Tendency

61% R

+0.11n=1861

Drive Openers by Zone

Own Territory

64% R

+0.17n=685

Midfield

67% R

-0.12n=45

Red Zone

50% R

-0.17n=16

Goal Line

56% R

+0.40n=9

Predictability Index

3rd & Longpasses 80%

Defenses will prepare for this

After Sackpasses 60%

After Big Gainruns 59%

Red Zoneruns 58%

Overall Tendencyruns 54%

Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull Profile →