OC Tendencies scouting report · October 28, 2026
Tim Cramsey
OC · Arkansas · SEC · 3,608 plays tracked
47%
Run %
53%
Pass %
+0.27
EPA per play
Arkansas 2026–presentMemphis 2022–2025
Biggest splits vs his own average (descriptive, not a prediction)
Balanced attack47% run / 53% pass over 3,608 plays (2020–2025).
3rd & Long: throws it85% pass — 32pp more pass-oriented than the 53% career average (144 plays).
Garbage Time: runs it72% run — 25pp run-heavier than the 47% career average (141 plays).
Goal Line: runs it70% run — 23pp run-heavier than the 47% career average (320 plays).
By down
1st down+0.09n=1627
54% R
2nd down+0.24n=1184
56% P
3rd down+0.71n=699
66% P
4th down+0.49n=98
56% R
3rd down by distance
Short (1-3)+0.80n=195
69% R
Medium (4-6)+0.65n=184
71% P
Long (7-9)+0.80n=144
85% P
Very Long (10+)+0.60n=176
82% P
Field zone
Own Territory+0.30n=2230
58% P
Midfield+0.04n=747
53% P
Red Zone+0.30n=311
60% R
Goal Line+0.62n=320
70% R
Game script
Up Big+0.22n=1001
56% R
Up Close+0.30n=662
50% P
Tied+0.30n=647
53% P
Down Close+0.26n=722
60% P
Down Big+0.32n=576
64% P
Quick stats
2-Min Drill+0.2449%n=574
61% P
After Big Gain+0.1455%n=436
54% R
After Sack+0.2736%n=96
66% P
Inside Opp 40+0.2352%n=1378
55% R
Middle 8+0.1950%n=643
60% P
Post-event reactions
Big Gain (15+)+0.14n=436
54% R
Big Gain (20+)+0.08n=272
55% R
Sack+0.27n=96
66% P
Negative Play+0.34n=294
67% P
Stuffed Run+0.44n=292
63% P
1st Down Tendency+0.09n=1627
54% R
Drive openers by zone
Own Territory+0.22n=545
51% P
Midfield-0.05n=50
52% R
Red Zone+0.12n=13
77% R
Goal Line+0.48n=13
92% R
Run/pass imbalance
3rd & Longpasses 85%
After Sackpasses 66%
When Trailing Bigpasses 64%
2-Minute Drillpasses 61%
Red zone (11–20 yds)runs 60%
Advanced intel
Tempo28.8s avg / 32.0s median
Explosive6.9% rush / 17.0% pass
1st Half Opening Drive54% pass (n=331)
2nd Half Opening Drive52% pass (n=311)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull profile →