OC Tendencies Scouting Report · April 30, 2026
Tim Cramsey
OC · Arkansas · SEC · 3,623 plays tracked
Run%
47%
Pass%
53%
EPA/Play
+0.27
Arkansas 2026–presentMemphis 2022–2025
Key Findings
Balanced attack47% run / 53% pass over 3,623 plays — keeps defenses honest with a near-even split.
3rd & Long: throws it85% pass — 33pp more pass-oriented than the 53% career average (144 plays).
Garbage Time: runs it75% run — 27pp run-heavier than the 47% career average (149 plays).
Goal Line: runs it70% run — 23pp run-heavier than the 47% career average (320 plays).
By Down
1st Down+0.08n=1640
54% R
2nd Down+0.24n=1186
56% P
3rd Down+0.71n=699
66% P
4th Down+0.49n=98
56% R
3rd Down by Distance
Short (1-3)+0.80n=195
69% R
Medium (4-6)+0.65n=184
71% P
Long (7-9)+0.80n=144
85% P
Very Long (10+)+0.60n=176
82% P
Field Zone
Own Territory+0.29n=2242
58% P
Midfield+0.03n=750
53% P
Red Zone+0.30n=311
60% R
Goal Line+0.62n=320
70% R
Game Script
Up Big+0.33n=1054
56% R
Up Close+0.34n=686
51% R
Tied+0.21n=623
55% P
Down Close+0.17n=702
60% P
Down Big+0.26n=558
63% P
Quick Stats
2-Min Drill+0.2148%n=589
60% P
After Big Gain+0.1455%n=437
54% R
After Sack+0.2736%n=96
66% P
Inside Opp 40+0.2351%n=1381
56% R
Middle 8+0.1950%n=645
60% P
Post-Event Reactions
Big Gain (15+)+0.14n=437
54% R
Big Gain (20+)+0.07n=273
55% R
Sack+0.27n=96
66% P
Negative Play+0.34n=296
67% P
Stuffed Run+0.41n=298
62% P
1st Down Tendency+0.08n=1640
54% R
Drive Openers by Zone
Own Territory+0.21n=552
50% P
Midfield-0.10n=53
55% R
Red Zone+0.12n=13
77% R
Goal Line+0.48n=13
92% R
Predictability Index
3rd & Longpasses 85%
Defenses will prepare for this
After Sackpasses 66%
When Trailing Bigpasses 63%
Red Zoneruns 60%
2-Minute Drillpasses 60%
Advanced Intel
Tempo28.8s avg / 32.0s median
Play Action0% rate · +0.00 EPA
Explosive6.9% rush / 17.0% pass
1st Half Opening Drive54% pass (n=331)
2nd Half Opening Drive52% pass (n=311)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull Profile →