OC Tendencies Scouting Report · April 30, 2026
Slade Nagle
OC · Houston · Big 12 · 1,815 plays tracked
Run%
57%
Pass%
43%
EPA/Play
+0.18
Houston 2025–presentTulane 2023–2023
Key Findings
Run-first offense57% run rate over 1,815 plays — establishes the run as the primary play-caller identity.
3rd & Long: throws it77% pass — 34pp more pass-oriented than the 43% career average (105 plays).
After a Sack: throws it59% pass — 15pp more pass-oriented than the 43% career average (41 plays).
Down Big: throws it56% pass — 12pp more pass-oriented than the 43% career average (242 plays).
By Down
1st Down+0.06n=790
62% R
2nd Down+0.13n=578
62% R
3rd Down+0.47n=381
57% P
4th Down+0.32n=66
68% P
3rd Down by Distance
Short (1-3)+0.62n=114
70% R
Medium (4-6)+0.24n=78
64% P
Long (7-9)+0.44n=105
77% P
Very Long (10+)+0.52n=84
64% P
Field Zone
Own Territory+0.25n=1116
54% R
Midfield-0.08n=389
58% R
Red Zone+0.10n=150
64% R
Goal Line+0.37n=160
64% R
Game Script
Up Big+0.19n=484
63% R
Up Close+0.21n=430
62% R
Tied+0.16n=365
52% R
Down Close+0.17n=294
55% R
Down Big+0.12n=242
56% P
Quick Stats
2-Min Drill-0.0139%n=225
56% R
After Big Gain+0.1855%n=196
61% R
After Sack-0.0520%n=41
59% P
Inside Opp 40+0.0646%n=699
60% R
Middle 8+0.2450%n=311
52% P
Post-Event Reactions
Big Gain (15+)+0.18n=196
61% R
Big Gain (20+)+0.19n=122
59% R
Sack-0.05n=41
59% P
Negative Play-0.02n=137
50% P
Stuffed Run+0.12n=156
50% P
1st Down Tendency+0.06n=790
62% R
Drive Openers by Zone
Own Territory+0.06n=291
65% R
Midfield+0.04n=16
75% R
Red Zone-0.02n=3
100% R
Goal Line+0.31n=3
100% R
Predictability Index
3rd & Longpasses 77%
Defenses will prepare for this
Red Zoneruns 64%
After Big Gainruns 61%
After Sackpasses 59%
Overall Tendencyruns 57%
Advanced Intel
Tempo28.1s avg / 30.8s median
Play Action0% rate · +0.00 EPA
Explosive5.3% rush / 18.4% pass
1st Half Opening Drive51% run (n=154)
2nd Half Opening Drive53% run (n=179)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull Profile →