OC Tendencies Scouting Report · April 30, 2026
Marcus Arroyo
OC · Arizona State · Big 12 · 3,720 plays tracked
Run%
51%
Pass%
49%
EPA/Play
+0.21
Arizona State 2024–presentUNLV 2020–2022
Key Findings
Balanced attack51% run / 49% pass over 3,720 plays — keeps defenses honest with a near-even split.
3rd & Long: throws it80% pass — 31pp more pass-oriented than the 49% career average (162 plays).
Goal Line: runs it68% run — 17pp run-heavier than the 51% career average (292 plays).
After Stuffed Run: throws it58% pass — 9pp more pass-oriented than the 49% career average (307 plays).
By Down
1st Down+0.06n=1621
60% R
2nd Down+0.16n=1199
53% P
3rd Down+0.54n=775
60% P
4th Down+0.48n=125
54% P
3rd Down by Distance
Short (1-3)+0.64n=207
70% R
Medium (4-6)+0.58n=176
66% P
Long (7-9)+0.55n=162
80% P
Very Long (10+)+0.39n=230
68% P
Field Zone
Own Territory+0.28n=2443
51% P
Midfield-0.02n=716
51% R
Red Zone-0.01n=269
54% R
Goal Line+0.38n=292
68% R
Game Script
Up Big+0.40n=623
58% R
Up Close+0.24n=628
56% R
Tied+0.22n=563
58% R
Down Close+0.11n=863
51% P
Down Big+0.14n=1043
57% P
Quick Stats
2-Min Drill+0.0545%n=558
53% P
After Big Gain+0.1952%n=412
55% R
After Sack+0.1136%n=137
56% P
Inside Opp 40+0.0745%n=1277
56% R
Middle 8+0.2149%n=731
52% P
Post-Event Reactions
Big Gain (15+)+0.19n=412
55% R
Big Gain (20+)+0.23n=257
59% R
Sack+0.11n=137
56% P
Negative Play+0.15n=328
58% P
Stuffed Run+0.18n=307
58% P
1st Down Tendency+0.06n=1621
60% R
Drive Openers by Zone
Own Territory+0.14n=595
57% R
Midfield-0.11n=42
52% R
Red Zone+0.49n=8
75% R
Goal Line+0.10n=15
73% R
Predictability Index
3rd & Longpasses 80%
Defenses will prepare for this
When Trailing Bigpasses 57%
After Sackpasses 56%
After Big Gainruns 55%
Red Zoneruns 54%
Advanced Intel
Tempo29.3s avg / 32.0s median
Explosive7.0% rush / 15.4% pass
1st Half Opening Drive56% run (n=374)
2nd Half Opening Drive57% run (n=338)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull Profile →