OC Tendencies scouting report · October 28, 2026
Marcus Arroyo
OC · Arizona State · Big 12 · 3,700 plays tracked
51%
Run %
49%
Pass %
+0.21
EPA per play
Arizona State 2024–presentUNLV 2020–2022
Biggest splits vs his own average (descriptive, not a prediction)
Balanced attack51% run / 49% pass over 3,700 plays (2020–2025).
3rd & Long: throws it80% pass — 30pp more pass-oriented than the 49% career average (162 plays).
Goal Line: runs it68% run — 18pp run-heavier than the 51% career average (292 plays).
After Stuffed Run: throws it60% pass — 11pp more pass-oriented than the 49% career average (293 plays).
By down
1st down+0.07n=1609
60% R
2nd down+0.16n=1194
53% P
3rd down+0.54n=772
60% P
4th down+0.48n=125
54% P
3rd down by distance
Short (1-3)+0.64n=207
70% R
Medium (4-6)+0.58n=176
66% P
Long (7-9)+0.55n=162
80% P
Very Long (10+)+0.41n=227
69% P
Field zone
Own Territory+0.28n=2428
52% P
Midfield-0.02n=715
51% R
Red Zone+0.01n=265
53% R
Goal Line+0.38n=292
68% R
Game script
Up Big+0.32n=590
57% R
Up Close+0.14n=589
55% R
Tied+0.22n=574
58% R
Down Close+0.21n=886
51% P
Down Big+0.19n=1061
57% P
Quick stats
2-Min Drill+0.0846%n=538
55% P
After Big Gain+0.2052%n=410
54% R
After Sack+0.1136%n=137
56% P
Inside Opp 40+0.0746%n=1272
55% R
Middle 8+0.2249%n=727
53% P
Post-event reactions
Big Gain (15+)+0.20n=410
54% R
Big Gain (20+)+0.24n=256
59% R
Sack+0.11n=137
56% P
Negative Play+0.17n=314
60% P
Stuffed Run+0.20n=293
60% P
1st Down Tendency+0.07n=1609
60% R
Drive openers by zone
Own Territory+0.16n=586
56% R
Midfield-0.11n=42
52% R
Red Zone+0.49n=8
75% R
Goal Line+0.10n=15
73% R
Run/pass imbalance
3rd & Longpasses 80%
When Trailing Bigpasses 57%
After Sackpasses 56%
2-Minute Drillpasses 55%
After Big Gainruns 54%
Advanced intel
Tempo29.3s avg / 32.0s median
Explosive7.1% rush / 15.3% pass
1st Half Opening Drive56% run (n=374)
2nd Half Opening Drive57% run (n=338)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull profile →