OC Tendencies Scouting Report · April 30, 2026
Justin Walterscheid
OC · Northern Colorado · Big Sky · 1,551 plays tracked
Run%
52%
Pass%
48%
EPA/Play
+0.06
Northern Colorado 2024–present (FCS)Southern Utah 2020–2020 (FCS)
Key Findings
Balanced attack52% run / 48% pass over 1,551 plays — keeps defenses honest with a near-even split.
3rd & Long: throws it80% pass — 32pp more pass-oriented than the 48% career average (100 plays).
Up Big: runs it67% run — 15pp run-heavier than the 52% career average (98 plays).
Goal Line: runs it63% run — 11pp run-heavier than the 52% career average (93 plays).
By Down
1st Down-0.10n=637
60% R
2nd Down+0.14n=517
53% R
3rd Down+0.33n=345
61% P
4th Down-0.48n=51
65% P
3rd Down by Distance
Short (1-3)+0.46n=90
69% R
Medium (4-6)+0.39n=89
65% P
Long (7-9)+0.20n=100
80% P
Very Long (10+)+0.26n=66
68% P
Field Zone
Own Territory+0.13n=1146
51% R
Midfield-0.23n=225
51% R
Red Zone-0.02n=87
61% R
Goal Line+0.05n=93
63% R
Game Script
Up Big+0.19n=98
67% R
Up Close+0.20n=138
62% R
Tied+0.05n=203
53% R
Down Close+0.01n=360
52% R
Down Big+0.05n=752
52% P
Quick Stats
2-Min Drill+0.1846%n=243
57% P
After Big Gain-0.1743%n=141
58% R
After Sack+0.0835%n=23
57% P
Inside Opp 40-0.1241%n=405
56% R
Middle 8+0.2047%n=298
56% P
Post-Event Reactions
Big Gain (15+)-0.17n=141
58% R
Big Gain (20+)-0.10n=85
59% R
Sack+0.08n=23
57% P
Negative Play+0.26n=145
58% P
Stuffed Run+0.23n=152
51% R
1st Down Tendency-0.10n=637
60% R
Drive Openers by Zone
Own Territory+0.05n=265
61% R
Midfield-0.31n=10
60% R
Red Zone-0.17n=5
60% R
Goal Line+0.07n=3
100% R
Predictability Index
3rd & Longpasses 80%
Defenses will prepare for this
Red Zoneruns 61%
After Big Gainruns 58%
2-Minute Drillpasses 57%
Overall Tendencyruns 52%
Advanced Intel
Tempo28.0s avg / 32.0s median
Explosive4.6% rush / 14.6% pass
1st Half Opening Drive57% run (n=137)
2nd Half Opening Drive53% pass (n=155)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull Profile →