OC Tendencies Scouting Report · September 14, 2026
Jake Spavital
OC · Baylor · Big 12 · 6,802 plays tracked
Run%
46%
Pass%
54%
EPA/Play
+0.21
Baylor 2024–presentBaylor 2023–presentTexas State 2020–2022
Key Findings
Balanced attack46% run / 54% pass over 6,802 plays — keeps defenses honest with a near-even split.
3rd & Very Long: throws it80% pass — 26pp more pass-oriented than the 54% career average (355 plays).
Garbage Time: runs it59% run — 13pp run-heavier than the 46% career average (469 plays).
Goal Line: runs it58% run — 12pp run-heavier than the 46% career average (401 plays).
By Down
1st Down+0.05n=3008
51% P
2nd Down+0.21n=2157
53% P
3rd Down+0.52n=1348
61% P
4th Down+0.43n=289
58% P
3rd Down by Distance
Short (1-3)+0.71n=357
63% R
Medium (4-6)+0.52n=346
60% P
Long (7-9)+0.31n=290
68% P
Very Long (10+)+0.49n=355
80% P
Field Zone
Own Territory+0.26n=4565
55% P
Midfield-0.01n=1365
54% P
Red Zone+0.10n=471
51% R
Goal Line+0.49n=401
58% R
Game Script
Up Big+0.24n=1016
58% R
Up Close+0.29n=870
51% P
Tied+0.23n=1268
54% P
Down Close+0.17n=1361
57% P
Down Big+0.18n=2287
59% P
Quick Stats
2-Min Drill+0.2148%n=968
65% P
After Big Gain+0.0929%n=791
53% P
After Sack+0.2225%n=173
62% P
Inside Opp 40+0.1045%n=2237
51% P
Middle 8+0.2748%n=1184
63% P
Post-Event Reactions
Big Gain (15+)+0.09n=791
53% P
Big Gain (20+)+0.07n=447
51% P
Sack+0.22n=173
62% P
Negative Play+0.25n=455
65% P
Stuffed Run+0.32n=454
59% P
1st Down Tendency+0.05n=3008
51% P
Drive Openers by Zone
Own Territory+0.06n=1084
51% R
Midfield-0.38n=75
61% P
Red Zone+0.09n=13
62% R
Goal Line+0.01n=15
67% R
Run/Pass Imbalance
3rd & Longpasses 68%
2-Minute Drillpasses 65%
After Sackpasses 62%
When Trailing Bigpasses 59%
Overall Tendencypasses 54%
Advanced Intel
Tempo24.8s avg / 25.0s median
Explosive6.3% rush / 16.1% pass
1st Half Opening Drive56% pass (n=358)
2nd Half Opening Drive55% pass (n=362)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull Profile →