OC Tendencies scouting report · October 29, 2026
Jake Spavital
OC · Baylor · Big 12 · 4,167 plays tracked
46%
Run %
54%
Pass %
+0.20
EPA per play
Baylor 2024–presentTexas State 2020–2022
Biggest splits vs his own average (descriptive, not a prediction)
Balanced attack46% run / 54% pass over 4,167 plays (2020–2025).
3rd & Very Long: throws it78% pass — 24pp more pass-oriented than the 54% career average (228 plays).
Garbage Time: runs it63% run — 17pp run-heavier than the 46% career average (256 plays).
Goal Line: runs it59% run — 13pp run-heavier than the 46% career average (227 plays).
By down
1st down+0.04n=1847
51% P
2nd down+0.20n=1330
53% P
3rd down+0.51n=835
62% P
4th down+0.37n=155
56% P
3rd down by distance
Short (1-3)+0.64n=219
63% R
Medium (4-6)+0.53n=212
64% P
Long (7-9)+0.30n=176
70% P
Very Long (10+)+0.54n=228
78% P
Field zone
Own Territory+0.24n=2853
55% P
Midfield-0.01n=810
55% P
Red Zone+0.15n=277
51% R
Goal Line+0.53n=227
59% R
Game script
Up Big+0.17n=590
57% R
Up Close+0.23n=518
53% P
Tied+0.24n=796
55% P
Down Close+0.16n=916
56% P
Down Big+0.20n=1347
57% P
Quick stats
2-Min Drill+0.2448%n=556
63% P
After Big Gain+0.1049%n=473
53% P
After Sack+0.1741%n=105
57% P
Inside Opp 40+0.1246%n=1314
51% P
Middle 8+0.2346%n=685
62% P
Post-event reactions
Big Gain (15+)+0.10n=473
53% P
Big Gain (20+)+0.09n=269
52% P
Sack+0.17n=105
57% P
Negative Play+0.26n=282
63% P
Stuffed Run+0.35n=279
59% P
1st Down Tendency+0.04n=1847
51% P
Drive openers by zone
Own Territory+0.03n=673
52% R
Midfield-0.48n=50
64% P
Red Zone+0.04n=9
67% R
Goal Line-0.13n=12
58% R
Run/pass imbalance
3rd & Longpasses 70%
2-Minute Drillpasses 63%
When Trailing Bigpasses 57%
After Sackpasses 57%
Overall Tendencypasses 54%
Advanced intel
Tempo24.8s avg / 25.0s median
Explosive6.3% rush / 16.1% pass
1st Half Opening Drive56% pass (n=358)
2nd Half Opening Drive55% pass (n=362)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull profile →