OC Tendencies Scouting Report · April 30, 2026
Greg Stevens
OC · Utah Tech · Big Sky · 1,368 plays tracked
Run%
44%
Pass%
56%
EPA/Play
+0.11
Utah Tech 2024–present (FCS)Southeastern Louisiana 2020–2023 (FCS)Eastern Illinois 2020–2020 (FCS)
Key Findings
Pass-first offense56% pass rate over 1,368 plays — relies on the passing game to drive the offense.
3rd & Long: throws it94% pass — 37pp more pass-oriented than the 56% career average (63 plays).
2-Min Drill: throws it77% pass — 20pp more pass-oriented than the 56% career average (210 plays).
After Big Gain: runs it63% run — 19pp run-heavier than the 44% career average (116 plays).
By Down
1st Down-0.03n=565
55% R
2nd Down+0.03n=464
55% P
3rd Down+0.40n=307
77% P
4th Down+0.72n=32
72% P
3rd Down by Distance
Short (1-3)+0.56n=74
57% R
Medium (4-6)+0.41n=86
85% P
Long (7-9)+0.21n=63
94% P
Very Long (10+)+0.40n=84
86% P
Field Zone
Own Territory+0.14n=1027
58% P
Midfield-0.09n=206
54% P
Red Zone-0.03n=79
52% P
Goal Line+0.53n=56
57% R
Game Script
Up Close+0.37n=119
54% R
Tied+0.03n=209
53% P
Down Close+0.02n=335
58% P
Down Big+0.11n=680
58% P
Quick Stats
2-Min Drill+0.0840%n=210
77% P
After Big Gain+0.1159%n=116
63% R
After Sack+0.2437%n=30
67% P
Inside Opp 40+0.0245%n=341
52% P
Middle 8+0.1142%n=261
60% P
Post-Event Reactions
Big Gain (15+)+0.11n=116
63% R
Big Gain (20+)+0.16n=68
71% R
Sack+0.24n=30
67% P
Negative Play+0.14n=108
69% P
Stuffed Run+0.22n=88
75% P
1st Down Tendency-0.03n=565
55% R
Drive Openers by Zone
Own Territory+0.03n=248
50% R
Midfield-0.16n=12
58% P
Red Zone-0.19n=4
100% R
Predictability Index
3rd & Longpasses 94%
Defenses will prepare for this
2-Minute Drillpasses 77%
Defenses will prepare for this
After Sackpasses 67%
After Big Gainruns 63%
When Trailing Bigpasses 58%
Advanced Intel
Tempo29.8s avg / 33.5s median
Explosive4.9% rush / 11.7% pass
1st Half Opening Drive57% pass (n=103)
2nd Half Opening Drive58% run (n=136)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull Profile →