OC Tendencies Scouting Report · April 30, 2026
Gordon Sammis
OC · TCU · Big 12 · 1,730 plays tracked
Run%
50%
Pass%
50%
EPA/Play
+0.26
TCU 2026–presentUConn 2024–2025
Key Findings
Balanced attack50% run / 50% pass over 1,730 plays — keeps defenses honest with a near-even split.
3rd & Medium: throws it80% pass — 30pp more pass-oriented than the 50% career average (82 plays).
Garbage Time: runs it63% run — 13pp run-heavier than the 50% career average (109 plays).
Goal Line: runs it59% run — 9pp run-heavier than the 50% career average (119 plays).
By Down
1st Down+0.11n=774
55% R
2nd Down+0.24n=568
52% R
3rd Down+0.56n=351
64% P
4th Down+1.01n=37
59% P
3rd Down by Distance
Short (1-3)+0.61n=97
72% R
Medium (4-6)+0.62n=82
80% P
Long (7-9)+0.39n=92
76% P
Very Long (10+)+0.64n=80
76% P
Field Zone
Own Territory+0.29n=1135
51% P
Midfield+0.07n=344
53% P
Red Zone+0.21n=132
58% R
Goal Line+0.62n=119
59% R
Game Script
Up Big+0.45n=476
59% R
Up Close+0.31n=383
54% R
Tied+0.16n=262
53% R
Down Close+0.18n=372
61% P
Down Big+0.08n=237
61% P
Quick Stats
2-Min Drill+0.1443%n=263
52% P
After Big Gain+0.0752%n=219
56% R
After Sack+0.5230%n=27
56% R
Inside Opp 40+0.2149%n=595
52% R
Middle 8+0.2850%n=316
55% P
Post-Event Reactions
Big Gain (15+)+0.07n=219
56% R
Big Gain (20+)+0.14n=129
59% R
Sack+0.52n=27
56% R
Negative Play+0.37n=108
51% P
Stuffed Run+0.30n=139
57% P
1st Down Tendency+0.11n=774
55% R
Drive Openers by Zone
Own Territory+0.14n=304
56% R
Midfield+0.02n=15
53% R
Red Zone-0.07n=3
67% R
Predictability Index
3rd & Longpasses 76%
Defenses will prepare for this
When Trailing Bigpasses 61%
Red Zoneruns 58%
After Big Gainruns 56%
2-Minute Drillpasses 52%
Advanced Intel
Tempo27.2s avg / 30.0s median
Explosive8.1% rush / 17.3% pass
1st Half Opening Drive51% pass (n=146)
2nd Half Opening Drive52% run (n=163)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull Profile →