OC Tendencies scouting report · October 28, 2026
Bryan Larson
OC · Northern Arizona · Big Sky · 738 plays tracked
48%
Run %
52%
Pass %
+0.23
EPA per play
Northern Arizona 2025–present (FCS)
Every play in this profile comes from FCS games, so it does not compare cleanly with FBS offenses.
Biggest splits vs his own average (descriptive, not a prediction)
Balanced attack48% run / 52% pass over 738 plays (2020–2025).
Goal Line: runs it70% run — 21pp run-heavier than the 48% career average (56 plays).
3rd & Medium: throws it72% pass — 20pp more pass-oriented than the 52% career average (46 plays).
Garbage Time: runs it68% run — 19pp run-heavier than the 48% career average (40 plays).
By down
1st down+0.16n=327
54% R
2nd down+0.26n=230
53% R
3rd down+0.27n=145
70% P
4th down+0.53n=36
61% P
3rd down by distance
Short (1-3)+0.28n=33
55% R
Medium (4-6)+0.40n=46
72% P
Long (7-9)+0.55n=28
79% P
Very Long (10+)-0.09n=38
82% P
Field zone
Own Territory+0.29n=473
55% P
Midfield-0.07n=140
53% P
Red Zone+0.09n=69
57% R
Goal Line+0.66n=56
70% R
Game script
Up Big+0.18n=156
63% R
Up Close+0.34n=147
58% P
Tied+0.17n=135
55% R
Down Close+0.47n=104
51% R
Down Big+0.12n=196
65% P
Quick stats
2-Min Drill+0.3250%n=104
54% P
After Big Gain+0.1557%n=91
57% R
Inside Opp 40+0.1249%n=265
54% R
Middle 8+0.3350%n=131
59% P
Post-event reactions
Big Gain (15+)+0.15n=91
57% R
Big Gain (20+)+0.15n=62
56% R
Sack+0.21n=15
80% P
Negative Play+0.23n=67
66% P
Stuffed Run+0.23n=71
54% R
1st Down Tendency+0.16n=327
54% R
Drive openers by zone
Own Territory+0.11n=117
56% P
Midfield-0.29n=7
71% R
Run/pass imbalance
When Trailing Bigpasses 65%
After Big Gainruns 57%
Red zone (11–20 yds)runs 57%
2-Minute Drillpasses 54%
Overall Tendencypasses 52%
Advanced intel
Tempo27.0s avg / 30.0s median
Explosive7.0% rush / 17.3% pass
1st Half Opening Drive52% run (n=63)
2nd Half Opening Drive53% run (n=58)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull profile →