OC Tendencies Scouting Report · April 30, 2026

Bryan Larson

OC · Northern Arizona · Big Sky · 741 plays tracked

Run%

49%

Pass%

51%

EPA/Play

+0.23

Northern Arizona 2025–present (FCS)

Key Findings

Balanced attack49% run / 51% pass over 741 plays — keeps defenses honest with a near-even split.

Goal Line: runs it70% run — 21pp run-heavier than the 49% career average (56 plays).

3rd & Medium: throws it72% pass — 20pp more pass-oriented than the 51% career average (46 plays).

Up Big: runs it63% run — 15pp run-heavier than the 49% career average (167 plays).

By Down

1st Down

54% R

+0.16n=329

2nd Down

53% R

+0.26n=231

3rd Down

70% P

+0.27n=145

4th Down

61% P

+0.53n=36

3rd Down by Distance

Short (1-3)

55% R

+0.28n=33

Medium (4-6)

72% P

+0.40n=46

Long (7-9)

79% P

+0.55n=28

Very Long (10+)

82% P

-0.09n=38

Field Zone

Own Territory

55% P

+0.29n=476

Midfield

53% P

-0.07n=140

Red Zone

57% R

+0.09n=69

Goal Line

70% R

+0.66n=56

Game Script

Up Big

63% R

+0.33n=167

Up Close

58% P

+0.32n=150

Tied

56% R

+0.16n=133

Down Close

51% R

+0.32n=98

Down Big

65% P

+0.08n=193

Quick Stats

2-Min Drill

52% P

+0.3049%n=107

After Big Gain

57% R

+0.1557%n=91

Inside Opp 40

54% R

+0.1249%n=265

Middle 8

59% P

+0.3350%n=131

Post-Event Reactions

Big Gain (15+)

57% R

+0.15n=91

Big Gain (20+)

56% R

+0.15n=62

Sack

80% P

+0.21n=15

Negative Play

65% P

+0.22n=68

Stuffed Run

55% R

+0.20n=74

1st Down Tendency

54% R

+0.16n=329

Drive Openers by Zone

Own Territory

55% P

+0.10n=119

Midfield

71% R

-0.29n=7

Predictability Index

When Trailing Bigpasses 65%

After Big Gainruns 57%

Red Zoneruns 57%

2-Minute Drillpasses 52%

Overall Tendencypasses 51%

Advanced Intel

Tempo27.0s avg / 30.0s median

Explosive6.9% rush / 17.3% pass

1st Half Opening Drive52% run (n=63)

2nd Half Opening Drive53% run (n=58)

Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull Profile →