OC Tendencies
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OC Tendencies scouting report · November 9, 2026

Beau Baldwin

OC · Arizona State · Big 12 · 785 plays tracked

42%

Run %

58%

Pass %

+0.14

EPA per play

Arizona State 2023–2023

Biggest splits vs his own average (descriptive, not a prediction)

Pass-first offense58% pass rate over 785 plays (2020–2025).
3rd & Very Long: throws it84% pass — 26pp more pass-oriented than the 58% career average (43 plays).
Red Zone: runs it53% run — 11pp run-heavier than the 42% career average (49 plays).
2-Min Drill: throws it67% pass — 9pp more pass-oriented than the 58% career average (97 plays).

By down

1st down
51% P
+0.04n=337
2nd down
60% P
+0.01n=250
3rd down
66% P
+0.42n=161
4th down
65% P
+0.75n=37

3rd down by distance

Short (1-3)
76% R
+0.63n=33
Medium (4-6)
73% P
+0.46n=48
Long (7-9)
76% P
+0.37n=37
Very Long (10+)
84% P
+0.26n=43

Field zone

Own Territory
61% P
+0.16n=588
Midfield
60% P
-0.15n=110
Red Zone
53% R
+0.25n=49
Goal Line
79% R
+0.48n=38

Game script

Up Big
59% R
-0.04n=32
Up Close
51% R
+0.15n=153
Tied
58% P
+0.28n=159
Down Close
61% P
+0.16n=157
Down Big
63% P
+0.07n=284

Quick stats

2-Min Drill
67% P
+0.1544%n=97
After Big Gain
55% P
+0.0349%n=73
After Sack
56% P
+0.3332%n=25
Inside Opp 40
51% R
+0.0745%n=197
Middle 8
60% P
+0.0741%n=146

Post-event reactions

Big Gain (15+)
55% P
+0.03n=73
Big Gain (20+)
56% P
+0.05n=43
Sack
56% P
+0.33n=25
Negative Play
54% P
+0.26n=35
Stuffed Run
50% R
-0.13n=32
1st Down Tendency
51% P
+0.04n=337

Drive openers by zone

Own Territory
54% P
+0.14n=139
Midfield
60% R
-0.22n=5

Run/pass imbalance

3rd & Longpasses 76%
2-Minute Drillpasses 67%
When Trailing Bigpasses 63%
Overall Tendencypasses 58%
After Big Gainpasses 55%

Advanced intel

Tempo30.6s avg / 36.0s median
Explosive4.8% rush / 12.8% pass
1st Half Opening Drive60% pass (n=65)
2nd Half Opening Drive57% pass (n=63)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull profile →