OC Tendencies · nektarinsights.com/octendencies · CFBD API 2020–2025
Beau Baldwin
Arizona State · Big 12
Arizona State · Big 12
Beau Baldwin
1 career stop · 790 offensive plays tracked
Scouting Report
Pass-first offense
57% pass rate over 790 plays — relies on the passing game to drive the offense.
3rd & Very Long: throws it
82% pass — 24pp more pass-oriented than the 57% career average (44 plays).
Up Big: runs it
63% run — 20pp run-heavier than the 43% career average (43 plays).
Red Zone: runs it
53% run — 11pp run-heavier than the 43% career average (49 plays).
Career Timeline
Overall Split
42.5%
Run
57.5%
Pass
43.3%
Success Rate
790 plays
2-Min Pass %
63.7%
n=102
42% success
After Big Gain
46.6% run
n=73
49% success
After Sack
56.0% pass
n=25
32% success
Inside Opp 40
51.3% run
n=199
44% success
Middle 8
60.3% pass
n=146
41% success
Tendency Strength — What Defenses Study
How readable is each pattern? Higher = more predictable to opposing coordinators
Defenses will prep for this
Exploitability Index
Grade F (23/100) — biggest tell: predictability
Moderate variation
Composed under pressure
Highly adaptive to game flow
Opener matches overall style
Moderate tempo changes
Run / Pass by Down
3rd Down by Distance
Run / Pass by Field Zone
EPA by Down
Game Script — How Play-Calling Shifts by Score
Run% and Pass% as the score differential changes — left = winning big, right = losing big
Situational Context
Post-Event Tendencies
Drive Opener by Zone
Advanced Analytics
Tempo — Pace of Play
Average seconds between plays (lower = faster tempo)
31.0s
Avg Pace
37.0s
Median
By Score State
Play Action
Play action usage rate and EPA comparison
0%
PA Rate
+0.000
PA EPA
+0.078
Non-PA EPA
454 pass plays
Explosive Plays
Rushes 15+ yards and passes 15+ yards as a percentage of total plays
4.8%
Rush Explosive
12.8%
Pass Explosive
9.4%
Overall
790 plays
Opening Script — Scripted Drives
Run/pass split on opening drives by half