OC Tendencies Scouting Report · April 30, 2026
Anthony Soto
OC · Cal Poly · Big Sky · 1,748 plays tracked
Run%
52%
Pass%
48%
EPA/Play
+0.24
Cal Poly 2026–present (FCS)Mercer 2024–2025 (FCS)
Key Findings
Balanced attack52% run / 48% pass over 1,748 plays — keeps defenses honest with a near-even split.
3rd & Long: throws it89% pass — 41pp more pass-oriented than the 48% career average (82 plays).
Garbage Time: runs it66% run — 14pp run-heavier than the 52% career average (188 plays).
Goal Line: runs it64% run — 12pp run-heavier than the 52% career average (109 plays).
By Down
1st Down+0.10n=807
64% R
2nd Down+0.27n=578
50% P
3rd Down+0.53n=341
73% P
4th Down+0.24n=22
55% R
3rd Down by Distance
Short (1-3)+0.62n=80
57% R
Medium (4-6)+0.59n=95
82% P
Long (7-9)+0.57n=82
89% P
Very Long (10+)+0.33n=84
77% P
Field Zone
Own Territory+0.26n=1204
52% R
Midfield+0.06n=313
54% P
Red Zone+0.17n=122
51% R
Goal Line+0.66n=109
64% R
Game Script
Up Big+0.41n=644
52% R
Up Close+0.22n=352
53% R
Tied+0.08n=235
55% R
Down Close+0.24n=204
50% P
Down Big+0.06n=313
50% P
Quick Stats
2-Min Drill+0.0840%n=183
63% R
After Big Gain+0.1047%n=232
63% R
After Sack+0.1639%n=38
50% R
Inside Opp 40+0.2047%n=544
51% R
Middle 8+0.3954%n=284
50% R
Post-Event Reactions
Big Gain (15+)+0.10n=232
63% R
Big Gain (20+)+0.10n=144
63% R
Sack+0.16n=38
50% R
Negative Play+0.37n=158
54% P
Stuffed Run+0.40n=170
57% P
1st Down Tendency+0.10n=807
64% R
Drive Openers by Zone
Own Territory+0.15n=308
68% R
Midfield-0.04n=25
56% R
Red Zone+0.24n=4
50% R
Goal Line-0.09n=4
75% R
Predictability Index
3rd & Longpasses 89%
Defenses will prepare for this
After Big Gainruns 63%
2-Minute Drillruns 63%
Overall Tendencyruns 52%
Red Zoneruns 51%
Advanced Intel
Tempo30.8s avg / 34.0s median
Explosive7.3% rush / 20.0% pass
1st Half Opening Drive54% pass (n=141)
2nd Half Opening Drive56% pass (n=131)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull Profile →