OC Tendencies Scouting Report · September 13, 2026
Anthony Soto
OC · Cal Poly · Big Sky · 1,729 plays tracked
Run%
51%
Pass%
49%
EPA/Play
+0.26
Cal Poly 2026–present (FCS)Mercer 2024–2025 (FCS)
Key Findings
Balanced attack51% run / 49% pass over 1,729 plays — keeps defenses honest with a near-even split.
3rd & Long: throws it90% pass — 42pp more pass-oriented than the 49% career average (81 plays).
Garbage Time: runs it66% run — 14pp run-heavier than the 51% career average (184 plays).
After Stuffed Run: throws it62% pass — 13pp more pass-oriented than the 49% career average (157 plays).
By Down
1st Down+0.12n=796
64% R
2nd Down+0.28n=574
51% P
3rd Down+0.55n=337
74% P
4th Down+0.24n=22
55% R
3rd Down by Distance
Short (1-3)+0.62n=80
57% R
Medium (4-6)+0.59n=95
82% P
Long (7-9)+0.59n=81
90% P
Very Long (10+)+0.38n=81
80% P
Field Zone
Own Territory+0.27n=1192
52% R
Midfield+0.09n=306
55% P
Red Zone+0.17n=122
51% R
Goal Line+0.66n=109
64% R
Game Script
Up Big+0.35n=617
51% R
Up Close+0.22n=347
54% R
Tied+0.15n=240
54% R
Down Close+0.37n=209
52% P
Down Big+0.11n=316
51% P
Quick Stats
2-Min Drill+0.1945%n=164
59% R
After Big Gain+0.1148%n=231
63% R
After Sack+0.1639%n=38
50% R
Inside Opp 40+0.2248%n=537
50% R
Middle 8+0.4155%n=279
51% P
Post-Event Reactions
Big Gain (15+)+0.11n=231
63% R
Big Gain (20+)+0.11n=143
62% R
Sack+0.16n=38
50% R
Negative Play+0.45n=146
58% P
Stuffed Run+0.49n=157
62% P
1st Down Tendency+0.12n=796
64% R
Drive Openers by Zone
Own Territory+0.17n=301
67% R
Midfield+0.04n=23
52% R
Red Zone+0.24n=4
50% R
Goal Line-0.09n=4
75% R
Run/Pass Imbalance
3rd & Longpasses 90%
After Big Gainruns 63%
2-Minute Drillruns 59%
Overall Tendencyruns 51%
Red Zoneruns 51%
Advanced Intel
Tempo30.8s avg / 34.0s median
Explosive7.4% rush / 20.0% pass
1st Half Opening Drive54% pass (n=141)
2nd Half Opening Drive56% pass (n=131)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull Profile →