OC Tendencies scouting report · November 9, 2026
Andy Kotelnicki
OC · Kansas · Big 12 · 4,623 plays tracked
57%
Run %
43%
Pass %
+0.31
EPA per play
Penn State 2024–2025Kansas 2021–2023Buffalo 2020–2020
Biggest splits vs his own average (descriptive, not a prediction)
Run-first offense57% run rate over 4,623 plays (2020–2025).
3rd & Very Long: throws it74% pass — 30pp more pass-oriented than the 43% career average (185 plays).
Goal Line: runs it76% run — 19pp run-heavier than the 57% career average (376 plays).
Garbage Time: runs it70% run — 14pp run-heavier than the 57% career average (330 plays).
By down
1st down+0.17n=2096
63% R
2nd down+0.29n=1492
59% R
3rd down+0.67n=893
58% P
4th down+0.22n=141
55% P
3rd down by distance
Short (1-3)+0.72n=258
71% R
Medium (4-6)+0.66n=255
65% P
Long (7-9)+0.71n=195
73% P
Very Long (10+)+0.60n=185
74% P
Field zone
Own Territory+0.35n=2960
54% R
Midfield+0.04n=872
56% R
Red Zone+0.30n=415
60% R
Goal Line+0.59n=376
76% R
Game script
Up Big+0.42n=1032
67% R
Up Close+0.26n=943
59% R
Tied+0.30n=828
58% R
Down Close+0.30n=782
51% R
Down Big+0.26n=1036
52% P
Quick stats
2-Min Drill+0.2348%n=686
51% R
After Big Gain+0.2153%n=606
66% R
After Sack+0.4543%n=74
55% P
Inside Opp 40+0.2351%n=1663
61% R
Middle 8+0.3252%n=863
52% R
Post-event reactions
Big Gain (15+)+0.21n=606
66% R
Big Gain (20+)+0.21n=366
65% R
Sack+0.45n=74
55% P
Negative Play+0.35n=262
54% P
Stuffed Run+0.39n=354
51% P
1st Down Tendency+0.17n=2096
63% R
Drive openers by zone
Own Territory+0.18n=739
65% R
Midfield+0.07n=50
66% R
Red Zone+0.20n=23
65% R
Goal Line+1.35n=13
77% R
Run/pass imbalance
3rd & Longpasses 73%
After Big Gainruns 66%
Red zone (11–20 yds)runs 60%
Overall Tendencyruns 57%
After Sackpasses 55%
Advanced intel
Tempo29.5s avg / 33.0s median
Explosive8.1% rush / 20.0% pass
1st Half Opening Drive59% run (n=488)
2nd Half Opening Drive59% run (n=470)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull profile →