OC Tendencies Scouting Report · May 12, 2026
Andy Kotelnicki
OC · Penn State · Big Ten · 7,261 plays tracked
Run%
56%
Pass%
44%
EPA/Play
+0.29
Penn State 2024–2025Kansas 2021–2023Buffalo 2020–2020
Key Findings
Run-first offense56% run rate over 7,261 plays — establishes the run as the primary play-caller identity.
3rd & Long: throws it75% pass — 32pp more pass-oriented than the 44% career average (304 plays).
Goal Line: runs it74% run — 18pp run-heavier than the 56% career average (586 plays).
After a Sack: throws it58% pass — 14pp more pass-oriented than the 44% career average (131 plays).
By Down
1st Down+0.14n=3275
62% R
2nd Down+0.27n=2354
58% R
3rd Down+0.67n=1415
59% P
4th Down+0.40n=216
56% P
3rd Down by Distance
Short (1-3)+0.73n=410
69% R
Medium (4-6)+0.61n=385
65% P
Long (7-9)+0.66n=304
75% P
Very Long (10+)+0.70n=316
73% P
Field Zone
Own Territory+0.33n=4613
54% R
Midfield+0.06n=1392
55% R
Red Zone+0.30n=670
59% R
Goal Line+0.60n=586
74% R
Game Script
Up Big+0.45n=1939
65% R
Up Close+0.30n=1553
59% R
Tied+0.25n=1181
55% R
Down Close+0.22n=1206
51% R
Down Big+0.17n=1380
53% P
Quick Stats
2-Min Drill+0.2047%n=981
51% R
After Big Gain+0.1852%n=911
63% R
After Sack+0.3039%n=131
58% P
Inside Opp 40+0.2451%n=2648
60% R
Middle 8+0.2449%n=1308
51% R
Post-Event Reactions
Big Gain (15+)+0.18n=911
63% R
Big Gain (20+)+0.15n=553
63% R
Sack+0.30n=131
58% P
Negative Play+0.33n=430
55% P
Stuffed Run+0.39n=574
50% P
1st Down Tendency+0.14n=3275
62% R
Drive Openers by Zone
Own Territory+0.16n=1152
65% R
Midfield-0.00n=84
63% R
Red Zone+0.07n=38
58% R
Goal Line+1.03n=21
71% R
Predictability Index
3rd & Longpasses 75%
Defenses will prepare for this
After Big Gainruns 63%
Red Zoneruns 59%
After Sackpasses 58%
Overall Tendencyruns 56%
Advanced Intel
Tempo29.3s avg / 32.2s median
Play Action0% rate · +0.00 EPA
Explosive7.9% rush / 18.8% pass
1st Half Opening Drive56% run (n=740)
2nd Half Opening Drive60% run (n=668)
Data via CFBD API · 2020–2025 seasons · nektarinsights.com/octendenciesFull Profile →