OC Tendencies · nektarinsights.com/octendencies · CFBD API 2020–2025
Andy Kotelnicki
Penn State · Big Ten
Penn State · Big Ten
Andy Kotelnicki
3 career stops · 7,261 offensive plays tracked
Scouting Report
Run-first offense
56% run rate over 7,261 plays — establishes the run as the primary play-caller identity.
3rd & Long: throws it
75% pass — 32pp more pass-oriented than the 44% career average (304 plays).
Goal Line: runs it
74% run — 18pp run-heavier than the 56% career average (586 plays).
After a Sack: throws it
58% pass — 14pp more pass-oriented than the 44% career average (131 plays).
Career Timeline
Overall Split
56.2%
Run
43.8%
Pass
50.9%
Success Rate
7,261 plays
2-Min Pass %
49.3%
n=981
47% success
After Big Gain
63.1% run
n=911
52% success
After Sack
58.0% pass
n=131
39% success
Inside Opp 40
60.0% run
n=2648
51% success
Middle 8
48.8% pass
n=1308
49% success
Tendency Strength — What Defenses Study
How readable is each pattern? Higher = more predictable to opposing coordinators
Defenses will prep for this
Exploitability Index
Grade D (39/100) — biggest tell: pressure response
Moderate variation
Moderate pressure adjustment
Moderate adaptation
Opener matches overall style
Moderate tempo changes
Run / Pass by Down
3rd Down by Distance
Run / Pass by Field Zone
EPA by Down
Game Script — How Play-Calling Shifts by Score
Run% and Pass% as the score differential changes — left = winning big, right = losing big
Year-over-Year Evolution
EPA / play
Situational Context
Post-Event Tendencies
Drive Opener by Zone
Advanced Analytics
Tempo — Pace of Play
Average seconds between plays (lower = faster tempo)
29.3s
Avg Pace
32.2s
Median
By Score State
Play Action
Play action usage rate and EPA comparison
0%
PA Rate
+0.000
PA EPA
+0.366
Non-PA EPA
3,178 pass plays
Explosive Plays
Rushes 15+ yards and passes 15+ yards as a percentage of total plays
7.9%
Rush Explosive
18.8%
Pass Explosive
12.7%
Overall
7,261 plays
Opening Script — Scripted Drives
Run/pass split on opening drives by half