OC Tendencies · nektarinsights.com/octendencies · CFBD API 2020–2025
Andy Kotelnicki
Kansas · Big 12
Scouting Report
Run-first offense
56% run rate over 8,515 plays — establishes the run as the primary play-caller identity.
3rd & Long: throws it
77% pass — 32pp more pass-oriented than the 44% career average (366 plays).
Goal Line: runs it
73% run — 17pp run-heavier than the 56% career average (667 plays).
Garbage Time: runs it
70% run — 14pp run-heavier than the 56% career average (522 plays).
Career Timeline
Overall Split
55.5%
Run
44.5%
Pass
50.1%
Success Rate
8,515 plays
2-Min Pass %
51.1%
n=1177
44% success
After Big Gain
61.1% run
n=1085
After Sack
54.5% pass
n=134
Inside Opp 40
59.5% run
n=3005
50% success
Middle 8
47.6% pass
n=1459
48% success
Tendency Strength — What Defenses Study
How readable is each pattern? Higher = more predictable to opposing coordinators
Defenses will prep for this
Run / Pass by Down
3rd Down by Distance
Run / Pass by Field Zone
EPA by Down
Game Script — How Play-Calling Shifts by Score
Run% and Pass% as the score differential changes — left = winning big, right = losing big
Year-over-Year Evolution
EPA / play
Situational Context
Post-Event Tendencies
Drive Opener by Zone