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Northwestern State · Southland

Carson Stewart

1 career stop · 643 offensive plays tracked

Scouting Report

Run-first offense

56% run rate over 643 plays — establishes the run as the primary play-caller identity.

3rd & Very Long: throws it

84% pass — 40pp more pass-oriented than the 44% career average (49 plays).

After Stuffed Run: throws it

57% pass — 13pp more pass-oriented than the 44% career average (97 plays).

Career Timeline

Northwestern StateSouthlandFCS
2025–present

Overall Split

56.0%

Run

44.0%

Pass

35.3%

Success Rate

643 plays

2-Min Pass %

46.3%

n=80

41% success

After Big Gain

61.5% run

n=52

40% success

After Sack

50.0% pass

n=24

25% success

Inside Opp 40

61.6% run

n=146

34% success

Middle 8

51.3% pass

n=111

38% success

Tendency Strength — What Defenses Study

How readable is each pattern? Higher = more predictable to opposing coordinators

3rd & Longpasses 68%

Shows on film

After Big Gainruns 62%
Overall Tendencyruns 56%
When Trailing Bigruns 54%
2-Minute Drillruns 54%
Red Zoneruns 50%

Exploitability Index

C45/100

Grade C (45/100) — biggest tell: game script rigidity

Predictabilityσ=0.085

Moderate variation

Pressure Response12pp shift

Composed under pressure

Game Script Rigidity8pp swing

Stubborn — same plan regardless of score

Opening Drive Tell6pp deviation

Opener matches overall style

Run / Pass by Down

3rd Down by Distance

Run / Pass by Field Zone

EPA by Down

Game Script — How Play-Calling Shifts by Score

Run% and Pass% as the score differential changes — left = winning big, right = losing big

Situational Context

Post-Event Tendencies

Drive Opener by Zone

Advanced Analytics

Tempo — Pace of Play

Average seconds between plays (lower = faster tempo)

35.9s

Avg Pace

40.0s

Median

By Score State

Down Big
36.6sn=58
Down Close
35.6sn=5

Explosive Plays

Rushes 15+ yards and passes 15+ yards as a percentage of total plays

5.0%

Rush Explosive

12.4%

Pass Explosive

8.2%

Overall

643 plays

Opening Script — Scripted Drives

Run/pass split on opening drives by half

1st Half Opening Drive
62% run-0.058 EPAn=52
2nd Half Opening Drive
66% run-0.244 EPAn=44