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Toledo Rockets

Toledo Rockets

MACG5

2025-26 Drought Profile · 33 games played · 19-14 (58%)

Toledo Rockets ranks 4th of 13 MAC teams in droughts per game (1.15 dpg, below the MAC average of 1.31). Their droughts average 4:01 — +0:06 above the MAC norm — and have allowed opponents an average of 8.2 pts per drought, contributing to 9 influenced losses (4 decisive/major) this season.

Drought Profile

Droughts/Game

1.15

Conf avg: 1.3 · #4 of 13 in MAC

4th in MAC

-0.16/game vs MAC avg

#4 in MAC (13 teams)

Avg Duration

4:01

Conf avg: 235.6 · #9 of 13 in MAC

+0:06 vs MAC avg

How long cold streaks typically last

Avg Pts Allowed

8.2

Conf avg: 7.6 · #10 of 13 in MAC

+0.7 pts vs MAC avg

Opponent points scored per drought

Game Impact

Influenced Losses

9

4 decisive/major — close losses where droughts swung the margin

Timeout Rate

21%

Coach called a timeout in 8 of 38 droughts

Record w/ 2+ Droughts

4-7

vs 15-7 in games with 0–1 droughts

Drought Trend This Season
Droughts per game over the season with a 3-game rolling average. Season average: 1.1 droughts/game.
When Droughts Happen
Shows when droughts begin in each 2-minute window throughout the game. Counts total to 38 droughts. Dashed line shows the conference average.
Half Breakdown
1st half vs 2nd half: does this team adjust at halftime or get worse?
1st Half
23
droughts · avg 3:58
2nd Half
15
droughts · avg 4:07
Drought Cost by Severity
How damaging are each tier of drought? Longer droughts allow more opponent points — see if critical ones truly hurt more.
Notable (3–4 min)
25
66% of droughts
6.6 pts allowed
Significant (4–5 min)
7
18% of droughts
10.1 pts allowed
Critical (5+ min)
6
16% of droughts
12.8 pts allowed

Avg. opponent points scored during drought

Notable (3–4 min)
6.6 pts
Significant (4–5 min)
10.1 pts
Critical (5+ min)
12.8 pts

Key Takeaway

Critical droughts allow 94% more points than notable ones (12.8 vs 6.6 pts). Longer droughts cost significantly more.

Drought-Ending Shots
What shot finally breaks the cold streak? Zone intensity = frequency.
3-PT(13%)2-PT(76%)FT(11%)
3-Ptr (5, 13%)2-Ptr (29, 76%)FT (4, 11%)
Score Differential by Game
Every game plotted over 40 minutes — positive = team leading, negative = trailing. Hover a game in the sidebar to highlight its path through the season.
Mar 14
Akron Zips@ Akron Zips
L 76–79
Mar 13
Massachusetts Minutemenvs Massachusetts Minutemen
W 77–67
Mar 12
Bowling Green Falconsvs Bowling Green Falcons
W 77–76
Mar 6
Buffalo Bullsvs Buffalo Bulls
W 99–78
Mar 3
Miami (OH) RedHawks@ Miami (OH) RedHawks
L 72–74
Feb 28
Ohio Bobcats@ Ohio Bobcats
W 79–67
Feb 24
Northern Illinois Huskiesvs Northern Illinois Huskies
W 54–43
Feb 21
Eastern Michigan Eaglesvs Eastern Michigan Eagles
W 94–75
Feb 14
Bowling Green Falcons@ Bowling Green Falcons
L 70–80
Feb 11
Western Michigan Broncos@ Western Michigan Broncos
W 90–79
Feb 7
James Madison Dukes@ James Madison Dukes
L 71–73
Feb 3
Kent State Golden Flashesvs Kent State Golden Flashes
L 72–75
Jan 31
Ball State Cardinalsvs Ball State Cardinals
W 73–55
Jan 27
Akron Zips@ Akron Zips
L 81–91
Jan 24
Bowling Green Falconsvs Bowling Green Falcons
W 73–72
Jan 20
Massachusetts Minutemen@ Massachusetts Minutemen
L 82–84
Jan 16
Kent State Golden Flashes@ Kent State Golden Flashes
L 84–87
Jan 13
Ohio Bobcatsvs Ohio Bobcats
W 101–85
Jan 9
Miami (OH) RedHawksvs Miami (OH) RedHawks
L 73–87
Jan 6
Northern Illinois Huskies@ Northern Illinois Huskies
W 75–61
Jan 3
Central Michigan Chippewas@ Central Michigan Chippewas
W 78–75
Dec 30
Western Michigan Broncosvs Western Michigan Broncos
W 84–79
Dec 20
vs Lourdes University Gray Wolves
W 100–67
Dec 16
Michigan State Spartans@ Michigan State Spartans
L 69–92
Dec 13
Robert Morris Colonials@ Robert Morris Colonials
L 70–75
Dec 6
Oakland Golden Grizzlies@ Oakland Golden Grizzlies
L 97–98
Dec 1
vs Central State (OH) Marauders
W 102–58
Nov 26
Belmont Bruinsvs Belmont Bruins
L 72–87
Nov 24
Troy Trojans@ Troy Trojans
W 75–68
Nov 19
Youngstown State Penguinsvs Youngstown State Penguins
W 92–75
Nov 15
Detroit Mercy Titansvs Detroit Mercy Titans
W 90–83
Nov 11
Wright State Raiders@ Wright State Raiders
W 81–71
Nov 8
Marshall Thundering Herdvs Marshall Thundering Herd
L 73–85
← Opponent leading← Game time →Team leading →
Game Log
Notable (3-4 min)Significant (4-5 min)Critical (5+ min)
DateOpponentScore (H-A)Droughts
Mar 14Akron Zips@ Akron ZipsL 79-76
3
Mar 13Massachusetts Minutemenvs Massachusetts MinutemenW 77-67
2
Mar 12Bowling Green Falconsvs Bowling Green FalconsW 77-760
Mar 6Buffalo Bullsvs Buffalo BullsW 99-78
1
Mar 3Miami (OH) RedHawks@ Miami (OH) RedHawksL 74-72
1
Feb 28Ohio Bobcats@ Ohio BobcatsW 67-79
2
Feb 24Northern Illinois Huskiesvs Northern Illinois HuskiesW 54-43
2
Feb 21Eastern Michigan Eaglesvs Eastern Michigan EaglesW 94-750
Feb 14Bowling Green Falcons@ Bowling Green FalconsL 80-70
1
Feb 11Western Michigan Broncos@ Western Michigan BroncosW 79-900
Feb 7James Madison Dukes@ James Madison DukesL 73-71
1
Feb 3Kent State Golden Flashesvs Kent State Golden FlashesL 72-75
1
Jan 31Ball State Cardinalsvs Ball State CardinalsW 73-55
1
Jan 27Akron Zips@ Akron ZipsL 91-81
1
Jan 24Bowling Green Falconsvs Bowling Green FalconsW 73-720
Jan 20Massachusetts Minutemen@ Massachusetts MinutemenL 84-82
3
Jan 16Kent State Golden Flashes@ Kent State Golden FlashesL 87-840
Jan 13Ohio Bobcatsvs Ohio BobcatsW 101-850
Jan 9Miami (OH) RedHawksvs Miami (OH) RedHawksL 73-87
2
Jan 6Northern Illinois Huskies@ Northern Illinois HuskiesW 61-75
1
Jan 3Central Michigan Chippewas@ Central Michigan ChippewasW 75-78
1
Dec 30Western Michigan Broncosvs Western Michigan BroncosW 84-79
1
Dec 20vs Lourdes University Gray WolvesW 100-670
Dec 16Michigan State Spartans@ Michigan State SpartansL 92-69
2
Dec 13Robert Morris Colonials@ Robert Morris ColonialsL 75-70
2
Dec 6Oakland Golden Grizzlies@ Oakland Golden GrizzliesL 98-97
1
Dec 1vs Central State (OH) MaraudersW 102-580
Nov 26Belmont Bruinsvs Belmont BruinsL 72-87
3
Nov 24Troy Trojans@ Troy TrojansW 68-75
2
Nov 19Youngstown State Penguinsvs Youngstown State PenguinsW 92-750
Nov 15Detroit Mercy Titansvs Detroit Mercy TitansW 90-830
Nov 11Wright State Raiders@ Wright State RaidersW 71-81
1
Nov 8Marshall Thundering Herdvs Marshall Thundering HerdL 73-85
3
Drought-Influenced Losses
Close losses (≤15 pts) where droughts significantly impacted the outcome. "Defensive cost" = points allowed during drought periods.
Marshall Thundering Herdvs Marshall Thundering HerdL 73-85Nov 8
34 pts allowed during 3 droughts (40% of 12-pt margin)
Decisive Factor
Belmont Bruinsvs Belmont BruinsL 72-87Nov 26
34 pts allowed during 3 droughts (39.1% of 15-pt margin)
Major Factor
Akron Zips@ Akron ZipsL 76-79Mar 14
27 pts allowed during 3 droughts (34.2% of 3-pt margin)
Major Factor
Robert Morris Colonials@ Robert Morris ColonialsL 70-75Dec 13
21 pts allowed during 2 droughts (28% of 5-pt margin)
Major Factor
James Madison Dukes@ James Madison DukesL 71-73Feb 7
11 pts allowed during 1 drought (15.1% of 2-pt margin)
Significant Factor
Miami (OH) RedHawksvs Miami (OH) RedHawksL 73-87Jan 9
11 pts allowed during 2 droughts (12.6% of 14-pt margin)
Significant Factor
Akron Zips@ Akron ZipsL 81-91Jan 27
8 pts allowed during 1 drought (8.8% of 10-pt margin)
Minor Factor
Oakland Golden Grizzlies@ Oakland Golden GrizzliesL 97-98Dec 6
8 pts allowed during 1 drought (8.2% of 1-pt margin)
Minor Factor
Massachusetts Minutemen@ Massachusetts MinutemenL 82-84Jan 20
8 pts allowed during 3 droughts (9.5% of 2-pt margin)
Minor Factor
Drought Killers
Players who most often ended Toledo Rockets scoring droughts this season.
1
SW
Sonny Wilson
29% clutchⓘ
14
2
SC
Sean Craig
57% clutchⓘ
7
3
LJ
Leroy Blyden Jr.
33% clutchⓘ
6
4
JO
Jaylan Ouwinga
80% clutchⓘ
5
5
KV
Kyler Vanderjagt
50% clutchⓘ
4
3PT
2PT
FT