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Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Drought outlookSeason rates vs final result

Dayton Flyers

High confidence

2

est. droughts

3:50

avg duration

7

pts/drought

est. 14 pts ceded/game

Final results

✓ As expected

Droughts

~2→1

-1

Pts ceded

~14→12

-2

Illinois State Redbirds

High confidence

2

est. droughts

3:54

avg duration

7

pts/drought

est. 15 pts ceded/game

Final results

✗ Much worse than expected

Droughts

~2→2

+0

Pts ceded

~15→23

+8

Dayton Flyers averages 1 droughts/game  · Illinois State Redbirds forces 2 opp. droughts/game

3

Total droughts

Both teams combined

1

Dayton Flyers droughts

2

Illinois State Redbirds droughts

7:12

Longest drought

Illinois State Redbirds

35

Drought point swing

Total drought cost (pts)

Dayton Flyers drought cost

1 drought • 12 pts drought cost

12

Drought cost (pts)

Actual point differential change

Illinois State Redbirds drought cost

2 droughts • 23 pts drought cost

23

Drought cost (pts)

Actual point differential change

Game timeline

All droughts

Notable (3-4 min)Significant (4-5 min)Critical (5+ min)
Dayton Flyers

Dayton Flyers

1
1st Halfsignificant

Score: 14 → 16 · Opponent scored 12 pts

Ended by: Jordan Derkack makes layup

2-Pointer

4:30

12.0 pts

Illinois State Redbirds

Illinois State Redbirds

2
2nd Halfcritical

Score: 53 → 55 · Opponent scored 14 pts

Ended by: Ty'Reek Coleman makes 1-foot dunk (Chase Walker assists)

2-Pointer

7:12

14.0 pts

1H → 2Hcritical

Score: 33 → 36 · Opponent scored 9 pts

Ended by: Johnny Kinziger makes 25-foot three point jumper (Boden Skunberg assists)

3-Pointer

5:49

9.0 pts