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Saturday, January 17, 2026

Conference game
Air Force FalconsAir Force Falcons

66

vs
Nevada Wolf PackNevada Wolf Pack

81

Drought outlookSeason rates vs final result

Air Force Falcons

High confidence

2

est. droughts

4:13

avg duration

9

pts/drought

est. 19 pts ceded/game

Final results

✗ Much worse than expected

Droughts

~2→2

+0

Pts ceded

~19→30

+11

Nevada Wolf Pack

High confidence

1

est. droughts

3:46

avg duration

7

pts/drought

est. 7 pts ceded/game

Final results

✓ As expected

Droughts

~1→1

+0

Pts ceded

~7→5

-2

Air Force Falcons averages 2 droughts/game  · Nevada Wolf Pack forces 1 opp. droughts/game

3

Total droughts

Both teams combined

2

Air Force Falcons droughts

1

Nevada Wolf Pack droughts

6:40

Longest drought

Air Force Falcons

35

Drought point swing

Total drought cost (pts)

Air Force Falcons drought cost

2 droughts • 30 pts drought cost

30

Drought cost (pts)

Actual point differential change

Nevada Wolf Pack drought cost

1 drought • 5 pts drought cost

5

Drought cost (pts)

Actual point differential change

Game timeline

All droughts

Notable (3-4 min)Significant (4-5 min)Critical (5+ min)
Air Force Falcons

Air Force Falcons

2
1st HalfcriticalTO called

Score: 16 → 19 · Opponent scored 21 pts

Ended by: Ethan Greenberg makes 24-foot three point jumper (Wesley Celichowski assists)

3-Pointer

6:40

21.0 pts

1H → 2HsignificantTO called

Score: 29 → 31 · Opponent scored 9 pts

Ended by: Kolby Gilles makes layup

2-Pointer

4:01

9.0 pts

Nevada Wolf Pack

Nevada Wolf Pack

1
1st Halfnotable

Score: 9 → 12 · Opponent scored 5 pts

Ended by: Tayshawn Comer makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chuck Bailey III assists)

3-Pointer

3:46

5.0 pts