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Thursday, January 15, 2026

Conference game

Drought outlookSeason rates vs final result

South Alabama Jaguars

High confidence

2

est. droughts

3:59

avg duration

7

pts/drought

est. 14 pts ceded/game

Final results

✓ As expected

Droughts

~2→2

+0

Pts ceded

~14→14

+0

Arkansas State Red Wolves

High confidence

2

est. droughts

3:40

avg duration

7

pts/drought

est. 16 pts ceded/game

Final results

~ Worse than expected

Droughts

~2→2

+0

Pts ceded

~16→22

+6

South Alabama Jaguars averages 2 droughts/game  · Arkansas State Red Wolves forces 1 opp. droughts/game

4

Total droughts

Both teams combined

2

South Alabama Jaguars droughts

2

Arkansas State Red Wolves droughts

4:53

Longest drought

South Alabama Jaguars

36

Drought point swing

Total drought cost (pts)

Arkansas State Red Wolves drought cost

2 droughts • 22 pts drought cost

22

Drought cost (pts)

Actual point differential change

South Alabama Jaguars drought cost

2 droughts • 14 pts drought cost

14

Drought cost (pts)

Actual point differential change

Game timeline

All droughts

Notable (3-4 min)Significant (4-5 min)Critical (5+ min)
South Alabama Jaguars

South Alabama Jaguars

2
1st Halfsignificant

Score: 15 → 16 · Opponent scored 8 pts

Ended by: Chaze Harris makes free throw 2 of 2

Free Throw

4:53

8.0 pts

1st Halfnotable

Score: 2 → 4 · Opponent scored 6 pts

Ended by: Hantz Louis-Jeune makes layup

2-Pointer

3:21

6.0 pts

Arkansas State Red Wolves

Arkansas State Red Wolves

2
1st Halfnotable

Score: 10 → 13 · Opponent scored 9 pts

Ended by: Royal Blue Smith makes 28-foot three point jumper (Joey Chammaa assists)

3-Pointer

3:57

9.0 pts

2nd Halfnotable

Score: 46 → 49 · Opponent scored 13 pts

Ended by: TJ Caldwell makes 25-foot three point jumper

3-Pointer

3:53

13.0 pts