OC Tendencies · nektarinsights.com/octendencies · CFBD API 2020–2025
John Richardson
Arizona · Big 12
Scouting Report
Balanced attack
51% run / 49% pass over 6,321 plays — keeps defenses honest with a near-even split.
3rd & Long: throws it
80% pass — 31pp more pass-oriented than the 49% career average (274 plays).
Goal Line: runs it
68% run — 17pp run-heavier than the 51% career average (444 plays).
Up Big: runs it
61% run — 11pp run-heavier than the 51% career average (1,166 plays).
Career Timeline
Overall Split
50.8%
Run
49.2%
Pass
45.5%
Success Rate
6,321 plays
2-Min Pass %
53.2%
n=901
44% success
After Big Gain
57.3% run
n=723
After Sack
58.5% pass
n=164
Inside Opp 40
56.9% run
n=2212
43% success
Middle 8
54.3% pass
n=1207
46% success
Tendency Strength — What Defenses Study
How readable is each pattern? Higher = more predictable to opposing coordinators
Defenses will prep for this
Run / Pass by Down
3rd Down by Distance
Run / Pass by Field Zone
EPA by Down
Game Script — How Play-Calling Shifts by Score
Run% and Pass% as the score differential changes — left = winning big, right = losing big
Year-over-Year Evolution
EPA / play
Situational Context
Post-Event Tendencies
Drive Opener by Zone